Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23235adc87a7351d0af4e9dce0b7681a1aa450bec86348d9746afe0d4f702539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 32c | 1,636$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.54 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 35c | 465.2$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.6 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 66c | 374.43$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.96 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 32c | 350$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 9c | 326.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 306.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…66afbacked Yes | 40c | 292.04$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 29c | 208.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d9…28bfbacked No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 70c | 180$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…ed8bbacked Yes | 76c | 174.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…9817backed Yes | 78c | 161.61$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…1ea8backed Yes | 65c | 160.01$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…3158backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 57c | 87.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7808…3d93backed Yes | 65c | 77.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 26c | 74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed No | 76c | 67.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 21c | 59.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 53.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 72c | 45.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…7af4backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…98f8backed Yes | 48c | 38.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f5…b2a0backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…a575backed Yes | 65c | 24.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…19b6backed Yes | 67c | 24.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of March?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $120 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $150 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $160 end of March?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 end of March?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.