TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x10c6…19b6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
134
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Commodities, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 59 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT8253.7%44 W · 38 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 82 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$184
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$728Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$728
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$444Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.26
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$96
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.79
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$901Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$901.08
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$205.26
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.72
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+100%+$194
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$193.64
Will Jalen Duren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.48
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+144%+$161.04
Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+159.3%+$129
Will the Indiana Pacers have the worst record in the NBA?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.2
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$237Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+71%+$168.05
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
76ers vs. Nuggets: O/U 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$414Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$186
Spurs vs. Kings: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.99
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$350
Bulls vs. Lakers: O/U 239.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$480
Celtics vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$193.99
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$679Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$221
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$303.99
Showing 25 of 82 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+464.8%+$350.16
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$244
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$64
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$156
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$219.09
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$215.99
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$122.99
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$168
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+140%+$350
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+222.6%+$138
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+104.8%+$159.08
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+122.2%+$121
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$490Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$489.99
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$63.99
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$98.55
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.2wins+0.23per pick41cpaid+36.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$695Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+113.7%+$789.96
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$488.36
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$418Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+139.2%+$582
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+92.5%+$205.83
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+102%+$202
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$219.99
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+167.4%+$689.76
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+118.3%+$216.8
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$333Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$167.4
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$409.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.4
All 14 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$79.8
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$186
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+92.4%+$185.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+53.8%+$70
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.