Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d24d88c81f625fbfec38e27aaeb0eba2a56f31d9e24e88b5a0c1b6ed3d2b45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $200,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 62c | 12,559$7,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,793.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes | 60c | 10,640$6,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,367.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed No | 78c | 7,673$6,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.23 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 57c | 7,558$4,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.82 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed No | 63c | 7,332$4,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,711.88 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 49c | 6,127$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.06 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked No | 52c | 5,157$2,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,482.86 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed No | 67c | 5,000$3,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 32c | 4,877$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.81 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 64c | 3,638$2,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,333.14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 55c | 3,636$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.97 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 41c | 3,010$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,776.7 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 5c | 2,654$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…c279backed Yes | 70c | 2,606$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…9057backed No | 62c | 2,500$1,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.86 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,472$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 50c | 2,451$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.72 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 35c | 2,431$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 39c | 2,233$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369.18 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes | 41c | 1,806$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.82 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,779$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 73c | 1,693$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.12 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc5…7b98backed Yes | 55c | 1,625$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 57c | 1,613$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.75 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 26c | 1,519$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.99 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 51c | 1,459$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.82 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 43c | 1,400$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.99 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 56c | 1,346$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.39 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96d3…df67backed No | 49c | 1,313$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.11 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 55c | 1,300$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed No | 72c | 1,271$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.52 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,246$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 38c | 1,235$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.41 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed No | 61c | 1,170$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.87 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ce…f829backed No | 59c | 1,143$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.14 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +5.7wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 59c | 1,109$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Yes | 46c | 1,091$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 60c | 1,076$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.62 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked No | 47c | 1,037$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,005$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 60c | 950$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Yes | 48c | 947.25$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.68 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…713dbacked Yes | 31c | 903.23$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 27c | 889.6$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.19 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4522…897ebacked Yes | 60c | 836.71$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…c2ddbacked No | 69c | 800$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 34c | 799.98$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.99 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…2c13backed Yes | 61c | 741.11$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 28c | 716.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 37c | 715.47$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked Yes | 61c | 706.76$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…7039backed No | 52c | 696.23$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.42 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 52c | 672.31$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.78 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 79c | 663.58$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92be…0a05backed No | 76c | 632.51$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.49 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 74c | 600.42$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.23 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…6c40backed No | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 74c | 600$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed No | 77c | 571.27$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f3…6704backed No | 80c | 560$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0991…e29abacked Yes | 14c | 541.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 537.53$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…1d82backed No | 51c | 533.35$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6af2…971cbacked No | 79c | 505$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775a…80b7backed Yes | 21c | 505$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed No | 52c | 502.03$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…65d8backed Yes | 61c | 494.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 35c | 472.07$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.3 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab4…a62dbacked No | 51c | 457.49$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.94 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Yes | 61c | 428.18$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 19c | 424$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 65c | 413.73$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…a21cbacked Yes | 61c | 410.66$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 39c | 407.93$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.73 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a3…24d2backed Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 51c | 399.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.73 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 61c | 395.3$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea05…0792backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1156…5eb4backed No | 77c | 380.21$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed No | 65c | 380$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 41c | 377.8$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.47 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 49c | 375.5$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.51 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…9275backed Yes | 58c | 370$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 61c | 364.93$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.44 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes | 18c | 352.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c5…7a13backed No | 75c | 350.49$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e51…7313backed No | 74c | 350$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…60b8backed No | 53c | 348.53$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.53 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c8…bc64backed No | 58c | 347.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e6…1582backed No | 58c | 344.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 67c | 343.45$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes | 59c | 339.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 36c | 333.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.87 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 35c | 328$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3810…272abacked Yes | 31c | 323.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 6c | 322$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…1119backed No | 78c | 320.3$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78e2…da9dbacked No | 43c | 308.96$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.07 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.