TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$182,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,875

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 260 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5c93…6df6backed Yes62c12,559$7,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,793.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes60c10,640$6,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,367.771233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d19…be54backed No78c7,673$6,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,670.234535.6%16 W · 29 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-42.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No57c7,558$4,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,244.8224258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed No63c7,332$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,711.8811839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab4f…552fbacked No49c6,127$2,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,141.0612547.2%59 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d1b…e75cbacked No52c5,157$2,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,482.863764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+53.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdfe3…73c4backed No67c5,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6403461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+34.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes32c4,877$1,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.8123435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes64c3,638$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.142240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes55c3,636$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.9715029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed No41c3,010$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.711050.9%56 W · 54 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes5c2,654$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.258224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4612…c279backed Yes70c2,606$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.181330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x60dc…9057backed No62c2,500$1,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.863461.8%21 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes0c2,472$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2115217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No50c2,451$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.728055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22e2…42d6backed Yes35c2,431$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8534119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.514920.8%31 W · 118 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed No39c2,233$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.183262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes41c1,806$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.822748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes9c1,779$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.642520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No73c1,693$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.1226835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x2cc5…7b98backed Yes55c1,625$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No57c1,613$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.759360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes26c1,519$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.994630.4%14 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b29…623bbacked Yes51c1,459$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.822313%3 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed No43c1,400$606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.9914355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes56c1,346$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.395143.1%22 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d3…df67backed No49c1,313$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.111861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No55c1,300$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58515451.3%79 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No72c1,271$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.524348.8%21 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f57…9b6cbacked Yes51c1,246$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6302944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes38c1,235$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.413727%10 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x935a…6235backed No61c1,170$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.874447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3ce…f829backed No59c1,143$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.141782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.7wins+0.33per pick49cpaid+124.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x85cb…6603backed Yes59c1,109$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6563740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-32.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Yes46c1,091$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002548%12 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47dc…c27ebacked No60c1,076$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.622748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2808…16babacked No47c1,037$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.57771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Yes30c1,005$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked No60c950$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.52540%10 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked Yes48c947.25$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.684841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4a…713dbacked Yes31c903.23$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-36.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88fd…750ebacked Yes27c889.6$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.192536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4522…897ebacked Yes60c836.71$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ce…c2ddbacked No69c800$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2481060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No34c799.98$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.9926238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb75…2c13backed Yes61c741.11$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb94a…a623backed Yes28c716.43$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes37c715.47$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26614147.5%67 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47a9…b03dbacked Yes61c706.76$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.841250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4f…7039backed No52c696.23$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.424057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+24.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes52c672.31$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.786443.8%28 W · 36 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef54…c997backed No79c663.58$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.165461.1%33 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92be…0a05backed No76c632.51$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.49785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick73cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No74c600.42$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.235563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba5e…6c40backed No45c600$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3302060%12 W · 8 L+5.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+58.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa92d…4e71backed No74c600$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1562564%16 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed No77c571.27$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.417360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80f3…6704backed No80c560$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0991…e29abacked Yes14c541.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752623.1%6 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-23.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes24c537.53$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9711225.9%29 W · 83 L-0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x305c…1d82backed No51c533.35$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.781553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6af2…971cbacked No79c505$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775a…80b7backed Yes21c505$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed No52c502.03$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.711747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabf0…da21backed Yes43c500$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x153b…65d8backed Yes61c494.22$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No35c472.07$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.37843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab4…a62dbacked No51c457.49$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.942055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Yes61c428.18$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.45875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+56.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes19c424$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.561127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No65c413.73$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.168232.9%27 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c79…a21cbacked Yes61c410.66$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.27147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-86.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes39c407.93$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.738355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20a3…24d2backed Yes23c400$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes51c399.99$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.737851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No61c395.3$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.23743.2%16 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea05…0792backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1156…5eb4backed No77c380.21$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.451662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf73…0436backed No65c380$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.55561.8%34 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes41c377.8$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.4714239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No49c375.5$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.5115855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa5a9…9275backed Yes58c370$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No61c364.93$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.449257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1d…a1e3backed Yes18c352.57$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.15425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c5…7a13backed No75c350.49$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.021855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e51…7313backed No74c350$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ee…60b8backed No53c348.53$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.531573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+52.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa7c8…bc64backed No58c347.3$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.33100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07e6…1582backed No58c344.9$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.91163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d5c…55dfbacked No67c343.45$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.453560%21 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8dd…f76dbacked Yes59c339.93$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No36c333.25$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.8735341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes35c328$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.927727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3810…272abacked Yes31c323.09$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes6c322$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3211040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ad6…1119backed No78c320.3$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.67475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+142.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x78e2…da9dbacked No43c308.96$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.072356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.