TailMyPicks
Market

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$301,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$274,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,709 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2778…8547backed Yes17c54,807$9,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,072.589413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No76c20,427$15,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,853.7124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked Yes13c19,384$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.4813230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes15c14,206$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,194.0815125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed No40c7,020$2,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,203.678549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ec…4612backed Yes16c6,772$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.536540%26 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-14%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No56c5,753$3,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,536.723435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf477…1c28backed Yes45c5,700$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5433435.3%12 W · 22 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No78c5,258$4,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.634841.7%20 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes34c4,721$1,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,622.2914355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes27c4,635$1,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,264.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x169a…c46abacked Yes50c4,342$2,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.612748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9619…a6c2backed Yes32c4,203$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.983452.9%18 W · 16 L+6.4wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+50.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes40c3,923$1,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,578.571233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes19c3,445$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.273525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed No78c3,210$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.22475%18 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes18c3,042$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.191747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x69a9…4f49backed Yes19c2,949$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.56650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+1,840.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fc0…4cadbacked No72c2,767$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.842176.2%16 W · 5 L+5.7wins+0.27per pick49cpaid+82.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No73c2,747$2,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.8814750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37fa…b43fbacked Yes36c2,679$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.82933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003148.4%15 W · 16 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dda…649cbacked Yes24c2,352$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.123821.1%8 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-49.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed Yes12c2,300$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.987736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaf75…7623backed No72c2,282$1,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.73560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfabf…c681backed No80c2,158$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes21c2,089$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.511839.8%47 W · 71 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes58c2,015$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.034010%4 W · 36 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes43c2,000$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.99650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes24c1,900$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.6713429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes17c1,855$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.5712830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Yes15c1,766$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.8215029.3%44 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9198…6b22backed Yes49c1,761$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.082352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffb0…fa37backed No79c1,650$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.59360.2%56 W · 37 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x52d2…2280backed No56c1,541$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed Yes36c1,482$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.673545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6e…a96abacked Yes21c1,421$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes10c1,402$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.842520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x88fd…750ebacked Yes29c1,402$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002536%9 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c1,374$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.1839429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes48c1,358$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.531844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes11c1,347$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.646647%31 W · 35 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfff0…54e7backed Yes14c1,345$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.084240.5%17 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes21c1,315$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.936622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes21c1,219$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.0213622.8%31 W · 105 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe07d…3481backed Yes20c1,208$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid+31.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d0…9e65backed No73c1,170$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.929257.6%53 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No77c1,123$866 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.122548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa29…8e18backed Yes27c1,120$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes40c1,120$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.12634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1f9…4794backed Yes17c1,087$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854723.4%11 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34f…3b09backed Yes9c1,060$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-50%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes26c979.71$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.173943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5903…23ffbacked Yes9c969.85$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.73520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-62.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes46c964.99$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.251216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-56.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x008d…6958backed No51c964.51$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4731258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x950a…b380backed Yes30c939.05$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.924810.4%5 W · 43 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed No41c938.25$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.173627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No61c929.46$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.959962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xddae…5d62backed No67c767.16$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.683243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22e2…42d6backed Yes32c726.54$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.294119.5%8 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked No58c710.12$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.364825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015217.8%27 W · 125 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa126…80d3backed Yes44c686.36$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd8…d8f0backed No56c685.61$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No66c661.16$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.4714239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes14c659.19$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.434040%16 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x727b…fdb5backed Yes71c609.67$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.191323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe301…f5c6backed Yes37c603.54$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.33240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes18c580.19$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4111322.1%25 W · 88 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No75c578.54$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.387247.2%34 W · 38 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked No18c560.09$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.042441.7%10 W · 14 L+6.8wins+0.28per pick14cpaid+203.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x5395…3fdabacked Yes47c544.08$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4de1…d632backed Yes18c531.89$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.293517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-55.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8751…b1f7backed Yes28c525.26$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.49119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-74.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7c2…51f9backed No62c520$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea1d…8711backed No64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1421…60b0backed Yes31c499.99$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14a3…f6d6backed Yes37c488.15$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No77c481.83$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.948055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes19c454.86$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d4c…89afbacked No79c443.04$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.041060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ecf…afe2backed No68c442.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.192119%4 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-67%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes6c441.91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.699518.9%18 W · 77 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c74…908ebacked No68c438.12$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3667…a875backed Yes21c427.13$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.961618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-43.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No67c400$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff9…19b4backed Yes36c391.67$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1411145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5af7…d410backed No67c375.3$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.19650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x210c…2edabacked No79c356.37$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.172770.4%19 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc894…b9f6backed Yes40c338.59$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.042240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No46c326.05$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.074757.4%27 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes36c322.98$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1154124.4%10 W · 31 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x09a8…90a7backed Yes64c312.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a89…7003backed Yes14c305.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1312…cf45backed No45c297.14$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.651145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde93…5ff7backed No70c287.31$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.31540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick71cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x698a…595ebacked No52c287.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.061216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-72.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.