Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f4e3a08d3c39a9af5d6177c18d90b537228599375ff81ac5171da7921cb204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $301,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $274,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 246 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 17c | 54,807$9,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,072.58 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 76c | 20,427$15,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,853.71 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 13c | 19,384$2,551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,551.48 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 15c | 14,206$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.08 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 40c | 7,020$2,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,203.67 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 16c | 6,772$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.53 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 56c | 5,753$3,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,536.7 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 45c | 5,700$2,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 78c | 5,258$4,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.63 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 34c | 4,721$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,622.29 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked Yes | 27c | 4,635$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 50c | 4,342$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.61 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9619…a6c2backed Yes | 32c | 4,203$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.98 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +6.4wins | +0.19per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…e26cbacked Yes | 40c | 3,923$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.57 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 19c | 3,445$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.27 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 78c | 3,210$2,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.2 | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 18c | 3,042$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.19 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69a9…4f49backed Yes | 19c | 2,949$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +1,840.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc0…4cadbacked No | 72c | 2,767$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.84 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 73c | 2,747$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.88 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37fa…b43fbacked Yes | 36c | 2,679$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…649cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,352$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.12 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 12c | 2,300$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.98 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 72c | 2,282$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabf…c681backed No | 80c | 2,158$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 21c | 2,089$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.5 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 58c | 2,015$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.03 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…1f7ebacked Yes | 43c | 2,000$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 24c | 1,900$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.67 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 17c | 1,855$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.57 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 1,766$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.82 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 49c | 1,761$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.08 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 79c | 1,650$1,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.5 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…2280backed No | 56c | 1,541$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 36c | 1,482$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.67 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…a96abacked Yes | 21c | 1,421$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,402$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.84 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,402$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 1,374$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.18 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 48c | 1,358$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 11c | 1,347$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.64 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 14c | 1,345$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.08 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,315$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.93 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 21c | 1,219$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.02 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…3481backed Yes | 20c | 1,208$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 73c | 1,170$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.92 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 77c | 1,123$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.12 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…8e18backed Yes | 27c | 1,120$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca44…6d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,120$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.1 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 17c | 1,087$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34f…3b09backed Yes | 9c | 1,060$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 26c | 979.71$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.17 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…23ffbacked Yes | 9c | 969.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9329…9d3ebacked Yes | 46c | 964.99$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…6958backed No | 51c | 964.51$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 30c | 939.05$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.92 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 41c | 938.25$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.17 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 61c | 929.46$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.95 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed No | 67c | 767.16$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.68 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 32c | 726.54$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.29 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked No | 58c | 710.12$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.36 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa126…80d3backed Yes | 44c | 686.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd8…d8f0backed No | 56c | 685.61$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 66c | 661.16$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.47 | 142 | 39.4%56 W · 86 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 14c | 659.19$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…fdb5backed Yes | 71c | 609.67$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.19 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 37c | 603.54$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 18c | 580.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 75c | 578.54$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.38 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 18c | 560.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.04 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +6.8wins | +0.28per pick | 14cpaid | +203.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…3fdabacked Yes | 47c | 544.08$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 18c | 531.89$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8751…b1f7backed Yes | 28c | 525.26$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c2…51f9backed No | 62c | 520$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea1d…8711backed No | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1421…60b0backed Yes | 31c | 499.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a3…f6d6backed Yes | 37c | 488.15$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 77c | 481.83$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.94 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 454.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.73 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked No | 79c | 443.04$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.04 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…afe2backed No | 68c | 442.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 441.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…908ebacked No | 68c | 438.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…a875backed Yes | 21c | 427.13$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 67c | 400$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…19b4backed Yes | 36c | 391.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af7…d410backed No | 67c | 375.3$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 79c | 356.37$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.17 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc894…b9f6backed Yes | 40c | 338.59$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed No | 46c | 326.05$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.07 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 36c | 322.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…90a7backed Yes | 64c | 312.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a89…7003backed Yes | 14c | 305.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1312…cf45backed No | 45c | 297.14$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…5ff7backed No | 70c | 287.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…595ebacked No | 52c | 287.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.