Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd970b5b62a594277e11e3b5ae558cc22a328e1891db99ed9837c9d029c36eaff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,856 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 71c | 4,642$3,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.88 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 3c | 3,100$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…1761backed Yes | 78c | 2,923$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.82 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…c5c4backed No | 39c | 2,540$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 9c | 2,444$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.89 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 10c | 2,103$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.17 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…70d8backed No | 39c | 2,082$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 68c | 2,052$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.65 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…ffbebacked No | 4c | 1,751$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,684$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4967…4292backed No | 3c | 1,662$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 6c | 1,200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 14c | 1,050$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.95 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 6c | 1,050$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 941.17$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 2c | 917.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 905.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 10c | 807.48$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…59a8backed No | 2c | 738.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…4167backed No | 2c | 701.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…7e38backed No | 28c | 606.89$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.72 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 5c | 592.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 38c | 550$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…06e4backed No | 2c | 498.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 488.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…665dbacked No | 2c | 481.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed No | 38c | 477.02$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 35c | 386.14$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.63 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd974…e051backed No | 44c | 381.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 60c | 334.99$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadc…d8efbacked Yes | 66c | 325.15$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 44c | 311.58$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 34c | 300.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…5f28backed No | 34c | 296.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5161…ea7fbacked Yes | 55c | 271.83$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbd…1288backed No | 32c | 270$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…ff36backed No | 40c | 251.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 20c | 239.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…5b43backed No | 28c | 230.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 45c | 230.37$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0834backed No | 46c | 217.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 74c | 215$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 47c | 214.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 200.51$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 62c | 200$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a5…56cbbacked No | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 196.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 31c | 172.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 56c | 154.39$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…0436backed Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 42c | 140.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 61c | 139.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…0ed5backed No | 32c | 139$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x178f…45b8backed No | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…b4c6backed No | 40c | 124.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed No | 34c | 108.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd779…06c3backed No | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 61c | 105.48$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d41…246fbacked No | 49c | 102.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 102.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xae29…1c87backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…cc23backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…8d04backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked No | 18c | 95.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b14…6d17backed No | 44c | 89.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…9109backed Yes | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 62c | 78.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 76.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…7b4abacked Yes | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5344…7dc1backed No | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca9a…2774backed No | 39c | 63.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7833…f126backed No | 46c | 63.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 79c | 60.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 52c | 59.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5e95backed No | 43c | 58.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ce…0716backed No | 48c | 56.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4b…dcd8backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…0e3abacked Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe3…e2b1backed Yes | 61c | 46.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 53c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 28c | 42.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf513…234ebacked No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 53c | 42.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed Yes | 71c | 41.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a82…cb97backed No | 38c | 39.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 15?No won
- Will Russia capture Rodynske by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.