TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e67…44bc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 70 out of 100 (+0.18 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 70 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.88
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$164
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.76
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$460
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.67
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.67
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$127
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.26
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.11
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.51
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.33
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$47
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+8.4wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+647.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
World Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+1,011.1%+$115.74
Will Otto Ritter win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.51
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+1,860.8%+$236.64
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+1,117.9%+$1,744
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+2,196.1%+$3,634.5
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$558
Will Jeanne Barseghian be the next mayor of Strasbourg?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$248.79
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.68
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Toulouse municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 10–15%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+1,566.7%+$195.08
Will the Emmanuel Grégoire List win the most citywide list votes in the runoff of the 2026 Paris municipal election by 5–10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.8
Will Green Left win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will the Social Democrats win 35-39 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+507.4%+$252.78
Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.99
Will Pierre-Yves Bournazel advance to the second round of the 2026 Paris municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$420
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+923.4%+$759.28
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$727.36
All 22 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$558
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.8
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.5
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.2
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.47
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.89
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT70%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will VIX close above 50 by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.