Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8106f994181fc1eb669b85ec79ba1e96b864c815d2fbdfdf2d6751eab1303418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,126 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 26c | 1,490$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 74c | 1,114$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.64 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 832$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 74c | 826$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 10c | 792.47$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.43 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…200fbacked No | 26c | 770$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 12c | 705.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 8c | 593.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 26c | 364$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 18c | 352.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1639…e706backed Yes | 74c | 320$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 300$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 8c | 259.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 6c | 255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…54a7backed Yes | 74c | 218$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 6c | 190.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed Yes | 74c | 147$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…f2f3backed No | 28c | 135.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 27c | 127.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 18c | 99.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 11c | 94.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 54.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…b5ebbacked Yes | 73c | 27.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.