Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce375ff413c668d10fcb03ff860ffe2b9e9ace7f4f4fbd7d1cfa0df623fc5f31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2282…1051backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb25…5b6bbacked No | 73c | 1,626$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.02 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 55c | 1,011$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 34c | 996.82$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.29 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 27c | 935$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.45 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…34c7backed Yes | 62c | 768$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 27c | 691$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 61c | 640.1$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.9 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 55c | 636$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.8 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed No | 45c | 636$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.8 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 78c | 513.83$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…1d79backed Yes | 7c | 468.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked Yes | 24c | 435.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 419.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed Yes | 73c | 405.83$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.69 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 66c | 400$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 354$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 5c | 318.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 33c | 313.98$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes | 72c | 304.54$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 34c | 299.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.99 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13cc…8288backed Yes | 23c | 241.3$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 21c | 213.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 203.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 32c | 197$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 37c | 196.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.61 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 33c | 187.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.14 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84c…e106backed No | 58c | 172.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a36…4c96backed Yes | 61c | 164.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a6…7fdcbacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed No | 64c | 133.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 127.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 108.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed Yes | 68c | 107.89$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…f53bbacked Yes | 31c | 101.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 47c | 100.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 20c | 94.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…3e33backed Yes | 62c | 92.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…2231backed No | 63c | 89.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 34c | 88.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 26c | 88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.24 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 16c | 80.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 29c | 61.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 57c | 51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 35c | 41.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 31c | 39.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 45c | 38.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 57c | 34.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 54c | 31.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 55c | 30.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc207…b24ebacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b01…d086backed Yes | 61c | 27.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6f…706abacked Yes | 67c | 26.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes | 78c | 26.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | -9.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.