Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe049bc81c6a04aee7a1c59e9c7f8f857c474c72be4425549a81d77a45dab4eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,072$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 103 | 21.4%22 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 12c | 1,287$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 11c | 914.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed Yes | 66c | 825.81$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 71c | 798.26$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.26 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 519$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed No | 6c | 480$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed No | 6c | 354.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 79c | 329$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 8c | 223.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 9c | 219.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 35c | 210.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…34c7backed Yes | 71c | 182.38$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 21c | 150.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 148.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 31c | 141.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 99.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…adafbacked Yes | 72c | 85.86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 30c | 83.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 21c | 76.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58c…8954backed No | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.