Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ca8eff9b85c456dd9028de846079e6bf7aabe8a50f2fbd36f2c2fd06f10ce8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,725 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 2c | 5,150$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 1c | 4,591$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked No | 4c | 3,824$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 7c | 1,700$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 8c | 1,600$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 8c | 1,500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 6c | 1,400$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +165.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 7c | 1,350$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 12c | 1,300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 5c | 1,065$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 952$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 20c | 805.13$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed Yes | 59c | 680.93$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.93 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 3c | 649.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 13c | 476.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.63 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 19c | 406.25$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 17c | 406.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd113…7fe7backed Yes | 73c | 380$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…be33backed No | 48c | 201.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…185dbacked No | 76c | 198.96$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 8c | 180.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 26c | 102.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…da18backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe295…55b3backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 49c | 36.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed Yes | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 356 | 52.8%188 W · 168 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.