Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e3b8baf0654c9f2327bb1c5283a13940ea9c9f49cc77a98017880418ed10239
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,595
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb89…9469backed Yes | 4c | 5,147$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.14 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,035$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 77c | 1,876$1,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.96 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…7d7fbacked No | 69c | 1,213$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 60c | 1,202$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.25 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd496…33d7backed Yes | 51c | 972.35$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed Yes | 64c | 783.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 47c | 731.28$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.2 | 187 | 38%71 W · 116 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…b017backed No | 48c | 712.61$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.28 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +99.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed No | 48c | 436.77$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.86 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +72%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed No | 51c | 432.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.89 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…f58dbacked Yes | 60c | 394.91$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked No | 27c | 375$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked No | 53c | 372.39$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.46 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 56c | 347.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.45 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…2446backed Yes | 64c | 342.07$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.09 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…2888backed Yes | 64c | 299.82$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…03ffbacked Yes | 77c | 286.03$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12f…6f41backed Yes | 49c | 266.24$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 35c | 229.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 45c | 223.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d73…49b4backed Yes | 67c | 220.93$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…c8c3backed No | 21c | 218.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.45 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 210.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.14 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 21c | 209.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.57 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed No | 58c | 201.45$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.58 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.99 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…0250backed Yes | 51c | 196.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 50c | 161.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.69 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…f32bbacked No | 25c | 157.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 51c | 155.86$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…9d55backed Yes | 62c | 153.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 150.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…5e7cbacked Yes | 67c | 150.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b7…2d35backed No | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 65c | 121$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 49c | 119.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c00fbacked No | 66c | 113.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371c…c236backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 135 | 32.6%44 W · 91 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…8df4backed No | 40c | 88.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 88.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 86.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 80c | 81$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 25c | 80.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…f3d0backed No | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 75c | 61.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 21c | 60.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 60c | 55.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 54.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca54…f9e6backed Yes | 62c | 50.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…f0adbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76a…2986backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…0c78backed Yes | 50c | 49.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 35c | 46.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 55c | 43.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 71c | 37.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 43c | 31.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 75c | 29.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…faf6backed No | 54c | 29.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked No | 65c | 27.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4870…6d52backed Yes | 50c | 22.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 52c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…21fbbacked Yes | 72c | 20.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe876…524abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99d…10b6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.