TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,664

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,762 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No71c2,985$2,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870.682944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes22c2,779$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.514940.8%20 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes69c1,453$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.1421034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No30c1,184$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.1813419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ac…c00fbacked Yes51c1,004$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed No45c817.54$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.5413246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed No44c733.34$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.926456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed No14c721.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.817740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes31c700.63$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.47425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc173…20f5backed No20c680.59$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.9921333.8%72 W · 141 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2ff…7d7fbacked No77c576.5$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes60c566.62$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.3511334.5%39 W · 74 L-7.5wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No33c533.35$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.3534234.8%119 W · 223 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaa6…3e62backed No19c532.2$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.9131344.1%138 W · 175 L+19.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+10.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No25c526.35$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.4416041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x56c2…abcbbacked No10c479.47$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.47450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+261.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No23c477.89$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.128734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2d0…02b8backed Yes38c448.9$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes28c400$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1129436.2%34 W · 60 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes12c376.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.76267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf12…cbd9backed No24c355.88$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.883348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e18…dd00backed Yes59c348.93$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No43c330.36$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2714854.1%80 W · 68 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcb…725abacked Yes15c323.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502821.4%6 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed Yes64c310.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20034440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865d…47aabacked No33c309.97$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.688248.8%40 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes7c267.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6635921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3f4…7d8fbacked Yes53c258$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe593…8692backed No67c258$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.913259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed No4c242.21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.636918.8%13 W · 56 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes10c239.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.913810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3344…2888backed Yes58c232.48$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-51.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a7…6a27backed Yes66c227.4$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.081844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc995…a944backed Yes59c217.73$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.59425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c75…34c7backed Yes66c206$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.96633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No33c200$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13464339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc94b…7f85backed Yes76c188.16$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.171428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes68c186.97$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.3350130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed No62c164.62$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.4220131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No19c161.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.410913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e3…6677backed Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+141.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb559…5e7cbacked Yes67c149.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yes74c149.25$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.45825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…f557backed Yes67c147.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+72.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf503…39e2backed Yes27c147.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.43043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7748…58d7backed No18c136.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.847138%27 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No10c128.72$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.559714.4%14 W · 83 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-43.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f04…6a54backed No15c123.77$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.112634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+55.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes43c118.54$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8831728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7a90…2ff9backed No13c113.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2928438.7%110 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2214…2fe9backed Yes67c111.94$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755056%28 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes45c110.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9700…1715backed No32c103.55$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.451323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-49.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed No30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705761.4%35 W · 22 L+12.8wins+0.22per pick39cpaid+68.5%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x8231…22e4backed No34c100$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666855.9%38 W · 30 L+11.7wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+48.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked No25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8793…faf6backed No18c96.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.124562.2%28 W · 17 L+8.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+57.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc7f0…9d55backed No79c91.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c90.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9842…00d7backed Yes58c89.04$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.24742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…b919backed Yes68c88.48$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6014854.1%80 W · 68 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfa3…a5c8backed No40c87.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb630…f3e6backed No40c86.95$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.994035%14 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No26c80.01$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4524839.5%98 W · 150 L-0.9wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No23c77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2924712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes26c76.14$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4334432.3%111 W · 233 L-31.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x938e…d242backed No18c72.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.747350.7%37 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ebc…da3cbacked Yes77c65.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes65c63.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.926366.7%42 W · 21 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b1a…4221backed Yes46c57.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.564126.8%11 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No77c56.15$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.168482.1%69 W · 15 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5df0…0de7backed Yes73c54.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.873966.7%26 W · 13 L+4.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2d26…f91dbacked Yes64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.171435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.513444.8%60 W · 74 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.232243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes75c46.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6886542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x556b…8edfbacked Yes50c46.36$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a56…059dbacked No26c45.8$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No34c45.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.885725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes68c44.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f9…8a8bbacked Yes68c43.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302035%7 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes37c42.02$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5639621%83 W · 313 L-57.0wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-64.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes70c42$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.326959.4%41 W · 28 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4c…a8b1backed Yes75c36.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x058b…b5ebbacked Yes70c34.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.241060%6 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes49c32.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7358927.2%160 W · 429 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaffb…c689backed Yes67c31.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213956.4%22 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.44856.3%27 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5a…5ee9backed Yes76c27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff38…1d79backed Yes76c26.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes47c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.811752.9%9 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-22.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc99d…10b6backed Yes74c22.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4656…6e0ebacked Yes66c20.14$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf90…41f0backed Yes66c17.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6115740.1%63 W · 94 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+87.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4870…6d52backed Yes60c17.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.