Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1a04b83d8c1dda6d3c58475a509e36d0e330d9e23d50a6a79db24b373f03800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 71c | 2,985$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.68 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…53debacked Yes | 22c | 2,779$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.51 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 69c | 1,453$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.14 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 30c | 1,184$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$826.18 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c00fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,004$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed No | 45c | 817.54$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.54 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed No | 44c | 733.34$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.92 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +40%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…ce76backed No | 14c | 721.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.8 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes | 31c | 700.63$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…20f5backed No | 20c | 680.59$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.99 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…7d7fbacked No | 77c | 576.5$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 60c | 566.62$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.35 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 33c | 533.35$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.35 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed No | 19c | 532.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.91 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 25c | 526.35$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.44 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c2…abcbbacked No | 10c | 479.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 23c | 477.89$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.1 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d0…02b8backed Yes | 38c | 448.9$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4de…424cbacked Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked Yes | 12c | 376.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…cbd9backed No | 24c | 355.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.88 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…dd00backed Yes | 59c | 348.93$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 43c | 330.36$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.27 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 15c | 323.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 64c | 310.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked No | 33c | 309.97$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 267.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…7d8fbacked Yes | 53c | 258$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe593…8692backed No | 67c | 258$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 4c | 242.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.63 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 10c | 239.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3344…2888backed Yes | 58c | 232.48$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…6a27backed Yes | 66c | 227.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.08 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc995…a944backed Yes | 59c | 217.73$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…34c7backed Yes | 66c | 206$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…7f85backed Yes | 76c | 188.16$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 68c | 186.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.33 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 62c | 164.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.42 | 201 | 31.8%64 W · 137 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 19c | 161.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +141.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb559…5e7cbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 74c | 149.25$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed Yes | 67c | 147.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 27c | 147.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 18c | 136.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.84 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 10c | 128.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 15c | 123.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 43c | 118.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 13c | 113.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.29 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed Yes | 67c | 111.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 45c | 110.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…1715backed No | 32c | 103.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…22e4backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…faf6backed No | 18c | 96.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +8.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f0…9d55backed No | 79c | 91.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 90.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9842…00d7backed Yes | 58c | 89.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 68c | 88.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…a5c8backed No | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb630…f3e6backed No | 40c | 86.95$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 26c | 80.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed No | 23c | 77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 76.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 18c | 72.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebc…da3cbacked Yes | 77c | 65.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 65c | 63.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed Yes | 46c | 57.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 56.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 84 | 82.1%69 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5df0…0de7backed Yes | 73c | 54.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…f91dbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 75c | 46.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…8edfbacked Yes | 50c | 46.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…059dbacked No | 26c | 45.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 34c | 45.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 68c | 44.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f9…8a8bbacked Yes | 68c | 43.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 42.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…a8b1backed Yes | 75c | 36.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…b5ebbacked Yes | 70c | 34.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 49c | 32.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed Yes | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…5ee9backed Yes | 76c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff38…1d79backed Yes | 76c | 26.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…c17dbacked Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc99d…10b6backed Yes | 74c | 22.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…6e0ebacked Yes | 66c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 66c | 17.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4870…6d52backed Yes | 60c | 17.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 28, 2026?this page
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 18, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 23, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 25, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 26, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 27, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 29, 2026?No won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.