TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9363…52ca

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
132
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 68 out of 100 (+0.16 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 68 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT5135.3%18 W · 33 L+12.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+385.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
World Politics — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Juntos por el Perú (JP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+400%+$120
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+2,443.1%+$5,668
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+400%+$40
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.4
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next Government of Denmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.75
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+2,400%+$620.67
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$69
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$121.5
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+1,374.8%+$704.01
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.13
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.23
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.71
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+1,685.7%+$257.34
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$164
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$760
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.26
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3810.5%4 W · 34 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid+61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 38 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$306
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$760
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$760
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$81
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.65
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.01
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+1,487.3%+$327.95
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.95
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$93
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.1
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.23
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$123
Houthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.7
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.24
Showing 25 of 38 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1631.3%5 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick11cpaid+129.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Commodities — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+400%+$160
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+530.6%+$589
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+1,392.5%+$466.5
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.8
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.55
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.88
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$123
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on March 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.69
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.4
Will 15-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 17-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.7
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$99
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 23-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+400%+$120
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.78
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1526.7%4 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+117.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+400%+$160
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+1,522.2%+$294.07
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.2
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$123
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$124.5
Will Russia enter Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.5
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by April 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.5
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.57
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will one person dissent the March Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.5
Will two people dissent the March Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tony Gonzales out as US Rep by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.