World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53316ee53bbb1f8b488371cbcf29b851838909ff1bd266fac86bd3d62c99093b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc78e…4718backed No | 12c | 9,077$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.02 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 42c | 6,962$2,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,006.93 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Yes | 77c | 4,529$3,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.18 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 25c | 2,444$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.45 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 14c | 1,069$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +403.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +7.3wins | +0.30per pick | 11cpaid | +459.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 13c | 973.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 17c | 902.4$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.88 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…4309backed No | 19c | 763.65$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 7c | 755.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.01 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 2c | 736.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 18c | 617.76$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.06 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 460.49$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.81 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 44c | 405.78$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.26 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec3…3adcbacked Yes | 40c | 385$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed No | 60c | 385$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 12c | 358.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed Yes | 18c | 356.35$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 72c | 327.38$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6a…e7f6backed Yes | 58c | 326.63$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.42 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0d…f05abacked Yes | 40c | 310$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 13c | 260$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.1 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 58c | 236$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 13c | 213.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e14…1e8bbacked Yes | 46c | 209.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…7b46backed Yes | 20c | 207.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 191.25$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.39 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d2…a2dbbacked Yes | 72c | 190.07$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 17c | 177.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x863d…8399backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 142.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed No | 14c | 140.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…db9fbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 34c | 129.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 59c | 124$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 120.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed No | 62c | 110.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ba…3ca5backed Yes | 76c | 96.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 17c | 91.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 43c | 85.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e2…cdfabacked Yes | 17c | 84.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…8b61backed Yes | 61c | 82.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +154.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 53c | 78.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x679c…becebacked Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 32c | 69.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 24c | 69.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 19c | 68.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…d48abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 61.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 21c | 52.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa999…21b3backed Yes | 66c | 51.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x929a…5ab4backed Yes | 67c | 44.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 27c | 37.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +136.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…28e0backed Yes | 59c | 34.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b8…fb78backed No | 73c | 32.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…7d0abacked No | 70c | 31.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb09…6110backed No | 70c | 31.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…3a5cbacked Yes | 61c | 22.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 52c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 72c | 20.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 79c | 19.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.