World Politics · resolved market
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x307764eaf38bd3527072a7b467c4f04993c9087b3f4200a01902dd34799831f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc78e…4718backed Yes | 9c | 14,990$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.06 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +23%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked Yes | 1c | 3,261$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48f1…4d49backed Yes | 79c | 2,519$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 40c | 1,988$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.56 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 18c | 1,186$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.16 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +28.4wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,151$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.28 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 14c | 650.27$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 72c | 590$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 6c | 572.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b3…55cfbacked No | 72c | 561$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 10c | 496.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 463.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked Yes | 15c | 433.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 72c | 431.51$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 400.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x697d…f299backed Yes | 7c | 393.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 385.57$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.15 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 24c | 347.23$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.26 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 7c | 318.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf283…937bbacked Yes | 15c | 313.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 33c | 260$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 10c | 256.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 233.13$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb2…745abacked Yes | 8c | 232.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 9c | 220.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 54c | 219.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.69 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…357ebacked Yes | 26c | 191.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d2…a2dbbacked Yes | 11c | 185.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 53c | 178.86$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 153.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 19c | 150$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +12.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +385.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a1…ec51backed Yes | 25c | 99.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 89.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 27c | 85.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 19c | 84.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.81 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | +167.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…1532backed Yes | 39c | 76.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…7e9bbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +94%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a6…7b46backed Yes | 43c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 55.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 48.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e14…7d0abacked Yes | 43c | 46.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e20…8fc7backed Yes | 66c | 44.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 28c | 44.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 76c | 41.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 52c | 39.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed No | 45c | 37.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…5d0dbacked Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…4a04backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…e6d9backed No | 75c | 30.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +323.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc625…bfb0backed Yes | 59c | 27.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95db…6b18backed Yes | 53c | 22.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3468…8587backed Yes | 47c | 21.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…6580backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -80%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 17.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?this page
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?Yes won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%?No won
- Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.