TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf24f…cfb7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 57 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT2722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+152.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+2,417.9%+$5,552.69
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+400%+$160
Will the Slovenian People’s Party (SLS) be part of the next Government of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.4
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 75% and 80%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+426.3%+$162
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+442.3%+$290.64
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.1
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+624.6%+$431
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$760
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Rowenna Davis win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Juan Pablo Velasco win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.68
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) win at least one seat in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 36-40% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.33
Will Fidesz-KDNP win 40-44% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Will voter turnout be 80%+ in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will voter turnout be 77–80% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.32
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT2218.2%4 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+193.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$760
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+400%+$156.89
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+2,269.7%+$1,380.67
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+1,487.3%+$374.8
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.31
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$76
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.47
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.6
Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.78
Houthi strike on Israel by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.35
All 22 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick16cpaid+134.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick14cpaid+77.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+509.8%+$360.51
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+532.9%+$421
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 12 and 15 on April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.42
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.65
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Iran successfully target shipping on April 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.73
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.72
All 7 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+232.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+565.5%+$444.66
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+525%+$168
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kanye blocked from entering the UK by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.