Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f208bc78348a5fefe6e4deb8a5a4e625a1e2522b08d0642c40fc0faf5b4da8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,925
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 1c | 25,556$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.67 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b0…7f8dbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 8,140$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.82 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 45c | 4,156$1,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.85 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 24c | 3,886$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.39 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 54c | 3,463$1,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,853.23 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…5349backed No | 9c | 3,082$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 40c | 3,031$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.91 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 59c | 2,600$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.47 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 39c | 2,307$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.15 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked No | 51c | 2,084$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,037$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.01 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 46c | 2,000$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 21c | 1,942$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.61 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,700$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.99 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed No | 39c | 1,655$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.75 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7b66…3a93backed No | 30c | 1,600$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 54c | 1,457$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.39 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 1,241$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.52 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7816backed No | 40c | 1,236$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 51c | 1,229$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.79 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1f…7828backed Yes | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…6043backed No | 61c | 1,139$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 17c | 1,100$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 57c | 1,005$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.9 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 905.14$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.46 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed No | 48c | 874.8$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.44 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 39c | 839.11$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.83 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…04ffbacked No | 56c | 831.99$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 52c | 791.36$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.49 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 53c | 776.99$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.29 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 53c | 727.43$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.32 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 8c | 726.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 54c | 709.99$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.59 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…05c6backed Yes | 50c | 702.82$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.82 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +49%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 44c | 647.37$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.37 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 26c | 607.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 32c | 604.78$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.14 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 35c | 584.29$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.79 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 46c | 564.99$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.05 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 18c | 541.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 202 | 43.1%87 W · 115 L | +30.9wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…c9e4backed No | 47c | 523$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.81 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 47c | 500$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed No | 43c | 462.38$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 51c | 460.36$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.68 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…db55backed No | 48c | 420.83$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 35c | 407.2$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.68 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 56c | 400.01$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed No | 47c | 400$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 55c | 366.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 50c | 352.01$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 51c | 350$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 64c | 346.6$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.35 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bd…ceaabacked No | 15c | 307.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 215 | 37.7%81 W · 134 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…cfb7backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…71a6backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 5c | 267$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked No | 47c | 242.87$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed No | 57c | 239.76$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.66 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 50c | 198.34$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 187.39$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 61c | 187.31$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 63c | 186.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 178.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 109 | 13.8%15 W · 94 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 58c | 175$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 37c | 171$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Yes | 47c | 169$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.57 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…588cbacked No | 52c | 163$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 45c | 159.93$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 49c | 159.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.34 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 48c | 159$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 37c | 154.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39bd…18f3backed No | 54c | 152.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 64c | 150$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…0037backed Yes | 61c | 149.99$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf919…953cbacked No | 33c | 145.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 52c | 144.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 55c | 140.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 51c | 140$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdffc…32e1backed No | 55c | 136.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3de…111abacked No | 8c | 135.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d27…331cbacked Yes | 40c | 134.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 51c | 134.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.98 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 52c | 133.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 42c | 126.17$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 53c | 122.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +200.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…9404backed Yes | 57c | 120.02$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 52c | 120.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.26 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed Yes | 47c | 118.36$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 48c | 116.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 69c | 112.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?this page
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13?No won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?No won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?Yes won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.