Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81317b0e55a3134a90e0d165f215466ee4cfc49c4089d166e8500f9476c4a0d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,904
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x466a…c444backed No | 6c | 5,213$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,876.63 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 8c | 1,771$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,626.41 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed No | 10c | 1,589$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.48 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 3c | 1,352$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.77 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 9c | 1,136$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.6 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed No | 19c | 913.41$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.14 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked No | 9c | 836.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.12 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 10c | 818.75$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.97 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed No | 3c | 800$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.2 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +202.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 12c | 745.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.5 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 4c | 707.4$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.62 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed No | 4c | 638.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.56 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 4c | 614.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.04 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 77c | 550$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 14c | 499.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.99 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 5c | 456.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.5 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 443$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.5 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked No | 5c | 422.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.44 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 381.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.04 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 16c | 350$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 97 | 39.2%38 W · 59 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed No | 9c | 294.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.35 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 207.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 19c | 158.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 23c | 133.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 13c | 122.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.31 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Yes | 79c | 99.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.49 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -9.7wins | -0.44per pick | 62cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 71.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.35 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 18c | 63.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7df…0723backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +158.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +235.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 74c | 40.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 63c | 31.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?this page
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13?No won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?Yes won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?Yes won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.