Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfe3760180616226c58d18c91bf8b9537331cb457515d274cd094520b9aec866
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,808,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,705,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,808,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 3c | 212,581$7,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,209.52 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed No | 2c | 144,453$3,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,319.87 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 10c | 97,126$9,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,638.48 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98e…eceebacked No | 0c | 70,789$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…ac80backed No | 0c | 62,089$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…f569backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 16c | 47,603$7,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,709.76 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 5c | 45,755$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.17 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…5349backed No | 0c | 41,681$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed No | 0c | 33,333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed No | 2c | 25,826$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 2c | 25,556$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 0c | 20,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed No | 2c | 19,304$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.48 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 3c | 16,389$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.55 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 1c | 13,962$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed No | 3c | 13,433$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.99 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4b…5166backed No | 0c | 13,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 14c | 11,110$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.85 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 3c | 10,300$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 2c | 9,624$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2222…f221backed No | 1c | 7,391$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 26c | 6,870$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,101 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 10c | 5,946$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.38 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 18c | 5,849$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,802.67 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16eb…3144backed No | 1c | 5,377$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4773…2289backed Yes | 75c | 5,363$4,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 63c | 5,263$3,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,946.49 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 1c | 4,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 12c | 4,553$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.55 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 53c | 4,304$2,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.71 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 33c | 4,174$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.68 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 3c | 3,900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 36c | 3,819$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.54 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked No | 56c | 3,792$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.75 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 20c | 3,452$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.52 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed No | 77c | 3,402$2,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,626.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked No | 0c | 3,334$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 1c | 2,998$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 79c | 2,937$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.12 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 12c | 2,716$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.16 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed No | 1c | 2,514$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 5c | 2,414$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 10c | 2,400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 25c | 2,190$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,651.33 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 9c | 2,149$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.6 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 10c | 2,100$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.99 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed No | 17c | 2,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked No | 3c | 1,928$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 32c | 1,922$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.4 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 3c | 1,839$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 73c | 1,708$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.88 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,648$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,295.23 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed No | 1c | 1,600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6d…5453backed No | 22c | 1,584$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.26 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked No | 18c | 1,579$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 45c | 1,407$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…cb2cbacked No | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…667bbacked No | 21c | 1,393$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 45c | 1,315$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.39 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 21c | 1,273$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.22 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…ecb4backed No | 70c | 1,210$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 31c | 1,200$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.71 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,200$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.98 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked Yes | 57c | 1,159$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 30c | 1,110$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.76 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 22c | 1,006$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.03 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.88 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 7c | 1,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 123 | 28.5%35 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8c0bbacked Yes | 79c | 880.94$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c0…eafcbacked No | 22c | 879.93$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.75 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 848.42$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.55 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 57c | 839.74$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.09 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 78c | 821.84$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.36 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 41c | 808.85$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.63 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…895dbacked No | 16c | 806.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.26 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed No | 43c | 800$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 46c | 671.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.27 | 159 | 43.4%69 W · 90 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 650.18$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.34 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed No | 11c | 639.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.3 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…9a3fbacked No | 67c | 637.17$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.84 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 59c | 601.43$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.16 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +134.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 16c | 593.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78d7…291dbacked Yes | 17c | 568.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 26cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5361…ccadbacked No | 21c | 535.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed No | 14c | 530.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c91…6d1fbacked No | 65c | 514.2$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 77c | 504.6$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +162.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…79eebacked No | 13c | 483$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fc…9606backed No | 80c | 470.03$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.81 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed Yes | 79c | 458.77$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.53 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3de…111abacked No | 9c | 458.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…6f11backed No | 73c | 444.79$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.51 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…f333backed No | 14c | 440.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770d…29c7backed No | 67c | 433.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked No | 12c | 424.83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?this page
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 13?No won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?No won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16?Yes won
- Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.