TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1fa1…1fa9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
114
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: La Liga, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 57 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT3917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,479Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+109.8%+$2,720.95
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$290
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,296Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,296.14
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$789Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$789.11
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$175
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13,379Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,378.78
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$456
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$7,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,165.24
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$260
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$851Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$851.12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,100
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$590Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$590
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,350Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,349.9
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$7,510Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,509.77
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$952Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$951.72
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$610Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$609.9
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$316
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$500.9
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$852Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$852.24
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$4,221Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,220.73
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$2,734Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,734.37
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$10,093Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+1,353.7%+$136,626.08
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT100%0 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.31
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$320
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$763Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$762.62
76ers vs. Knicksbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$425
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$608Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$607.5
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$571.44
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$633Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$633.28
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$265.55
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$341.43
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick22cpaid+101.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+203.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+89.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+279%+$1,840.18
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$298.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,668Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,668.26
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+721.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+721.3%+$2,236.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$398.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$640.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$430Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$430.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.