Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2732e6044eee17f24ecde333dc426373e639aed25b5a3a0f052f2698c247bd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,594,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,609,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,594,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 460 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 6c | 72,475$4,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,528.94 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 4c | 70,000$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,861.09 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 1c | 65,482$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.83 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…79f4backed Yes | 3c | 44,212$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 3c | 40,138$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.53 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 7c | 34,343$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401.12 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 7c | 31,522$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352.28 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes | 7c | 19,623$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.61 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 1c | 16,030$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.19 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 13c | 15,518$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 6c | 11,544$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.32 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 7c | 11,000$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 10,710$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…680dbacked Yes | 20c | 8,822$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,785.41 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 10c | 8,592$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.24 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…c0bebacked Yes | 10c | 8,080$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +162.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 15c | 7,852$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.58 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 7,645$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 9c | 7,608$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.71 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 5c | 7,526$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.7 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82a…185ebacked Yes | 12c | 7,421$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$891.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 3c | 7,056$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.28 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 1c | 6,483$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 20c | 6,153$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.7 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45a2…3c01backed Yes | 5c | 6,067$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.17 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed Yes | 5c | 6,000$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.33 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 7c | 5,891$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.97 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f47…d0b0backed Yes | 0c | 5,642$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 11c | 5,600$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.85 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 10c | 5,594$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.13 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 18c | 5,478$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.64 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 8c | 5,444$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.3 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a65…59c7backed Yes | 17c | 5,420$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4c7dbacked Yes | 13c | 5,232$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 5,147$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.8 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 17c | 4,966$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.42 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2440backed Yes | 10c | 4,878$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 22c | 4,709$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.6 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 13c | 4,675$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.32 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 4,555$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.21 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…a18bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,403$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 13c | 4,138$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 20c | 3,769$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.87 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 11c | 3,723$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 159 | 22.6%36 W · 123 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Yes | 23c | 3,706$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.67 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,692$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.2 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…3f28backed No | 80c | 3,310$2,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…1488backed Yes | 5c | 3,303$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 17c | 3,005$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.41 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,953$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2870…48c6backed Yes | 5c | 2,940$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 13c | 2,810$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.3 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 10c | 2,796$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.02 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 3c | 2,708$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 4c | 2,582$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed Yes | 16c | 2,524$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 13c | 2,475$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.46 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d8…5f37backed Yes | 4c | 2,383$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 12c | 2,350$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9812…644fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3f…9ed2backed Yes | 14c | 2,282$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 24c | 2,236$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.81 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 2,145$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.49 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 10c | 2,132$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.74 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…2c4cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 14c | 2,076$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.14 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03af…87cbbacked Yes | 19c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 4c | 1,952$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 3c | 1,940$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 8c | 1,924$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.46 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 16c | 1,914$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 1,907$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.31 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…a593backed Yes | 18c | 1,900$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.07 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4f…1bd9backed Yes | 7c | 1,842$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.55 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 13c | 1,747$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.32 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b26…501dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,727$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 19c | 1,725$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.89 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 13c | 1,718$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 5c | 1,699$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca8…8179backed Yes | 13c | 1,666$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 13c | 1,650$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.53 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 13c | 1,633$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,570$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…ac10backed Yes | 15c | 1,492$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 17c | 1,484$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed Yes | 14c | 1,440$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,421$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.31 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…d176backed Yes | 17c | 1,343$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.4 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,338$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 9c | 1,336$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 21c | 1,300$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6acabacked Yes | 12c | 1,293$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 14c | 1,287$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.28 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?this page
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.