Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd47d0bd030ed55038c400015331bea5447e3c3d9078c799aa6f6ac9becc81a70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $520,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $462,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $520,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 2c | 70,217$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.72 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 1c | 38,565$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.03 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5a…c318backed Yes | 0c | 35,248$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 1c | 31,631$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6208…e9c0backed Yes | 1c | 25,671$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 21,231$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 0c | 21,158$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 154 | 34.4%53 W · 101 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 1c | 12,504$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 1c | 12,500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.29 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fa…b051backed Yes | 1c | 9,650$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,343$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed Yes | 0c | 7,238$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 1c | 5,530$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 3c | 4,328$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.86 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…fa62backed Yes | 10c | 3,915$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.45 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…2c93backed Yes | 2c | 3,433$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +243.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 2c | 3,403$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 1c | 3,320$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 3,251$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…73c8backed Yes | 0c | 3,161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 5c | 3,138$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,600$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 2,010$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,815$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 6c | 1,595$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6725…1bf9backed Yes | 3c | 1,115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +8.7wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +109.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 5c | 1,036$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…94dcbacked Yes | 7c | 720$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…48b6backed Yes | 2c | 699.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 699.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Yes | 6c | 445.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 28cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 7c | 429.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…a4e7backed Yes | 8c | 378.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe04…a198backed Yes | 5c | 327.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 4c | 298.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +15.2wins | +0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x59f7…bf7fbacked Yes | 8c | 286.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 8c | 229.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 6c | 227$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 8c | 222.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc329…6a58backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 5c | 198.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…86d9backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?this page
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.