TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,657
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,657 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c10,665$11 inLost-$11.33190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…de98backed Yes1c8,178$50 inLost-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+471.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes1c5,300$30 inLost-$301596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b6…3a92backed Yes1c3,264$32 inLost-$32.447856.4%44 W · 34 L+13.0wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+75.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes4c3,248$134 inLost-$133.9328734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes1c1,667$21 inLost-$20.674820.8%10 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes2c1,600$28 inLost-$28.424712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9634…aae2backed Yes3c1,169$40 inLost-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-44.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,094$32 inLost-$31.611,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,081$18 inLost-$18.187135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0705…c0febacked Yes5c1,080$54 inLost-$54633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa245…0f5bbacked Yes10c909.31$88 inLost-$88.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c908.03$18 inLost-$17.513717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes3c767.06$20 inLost-$20.3342120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes3c750$23 inLost-$22.5362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-96.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ea9…6d52backed Yes2c699.99$14 inLost-$146319%12 W · 51 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes2c592.19$11 inLost-$10.6614940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes2c592$12 inLost-$11.849545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c463.99$14 inLost-$14.385071.4%7 W · 500 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa31…7664backed Yes5c400$20 inLost-$20160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes4c399.98$14 inLost-$14.440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cca…65cabacked Yes4c307.92$13 inLost-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.