Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb2031685ad36fa6a923d072a3f0e72b10847528eadcc47121b81737a996459d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,057
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 11,537$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 11,450$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…2128backed Yes | 1c | 8,288$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…e0b2backed Yes | 5c | 5,474$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 21c | 5,038$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.9 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes | 0c | 5,025$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 7c | 4,901$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,014$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.86 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 27c | 3,878$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.15 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a78…a1e0backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…7f9ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,375$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…ce0fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…6f64backed Yes | 1c | 3,121$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 3cpaid | +2,470.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…59dbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6062…4084backed No | 75c | 2,662$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.6 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,602$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.14 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 1,938$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe543…ecd4backed Yes | 6c | 1,700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 7c | 1,562$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.68 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +106%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,552$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.3 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,513$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…d918backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 6c | 1,014$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 66c | 985.14$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.04 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8d3fbacked No | 71c | 924.33$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.63 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 30c | 867.16$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.19 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 17c | 766.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes | 7c | 600$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 599.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 594.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 123 | 25.2%31 W · 92 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 2c | 528$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 515.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4447…b294backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 495.1$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes | 6c | 472.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb17…d935backed Yes | 60c | 331.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +824.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 321$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9967…7a31backed No | 73c | 320.03$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e19…eb4cbacked Yes | 21c | 287.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 44c | 251.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 66c | 238.95$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 232.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cd…cc94backed Yes | 9c | 173.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +447.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…6c74backed No | 77c | 168.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…8b5abacked No | 78c | 156$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…be79backed No | 72c | 139.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 45c | 130$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…0f5bbacked Yes | 30c | 110.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 317 | 28.7%91 W · 226 L | -35.7wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeed9…7405backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…0f81backed No | 73c | 89.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…3a6ebacked Yes | 29c | 85.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 23c | 56.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 29c | 44.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb333…e295backed Yes | 40c | 42.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…25a0backed Yes | 28c | 39.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…cc56backed No | 74c | 37.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…8ba7backed No | 65c | 35.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…c347backed No | 66c | 32.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…190ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 79c | 27.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 76c | 23.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 33 | 81.8%27 W · 6 L | +7.9wins | +0.24per pick | 58cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa338…e65cbacked No | 71c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 83 | 67.5%56 W · 27 L | +14.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe925…7c4fbacked No | 77c | 13.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?this page
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.