TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$251,679
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$202,258

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,679 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6872…876fbacked Yes1c22,273$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.199613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…6151backed Yes0c17,075$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2375…2128backed Yes2c13,535$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.4850%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c10,665$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.33190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c9,145$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.942742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes1c7,532$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1324712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b76…6984backed Yes0c5,600$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26160%0 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a6f…8df2backed Yes1c5,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.871612.5%2 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick3cpaid+92.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1081…c76bbacked Yes3c3,767$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.25217.3%9 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes2c3,456$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.3749023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes1c2,655$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.021596.9%11 W · 148 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c2,381$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.123717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b7…7f9ebacked Yes1c1,843$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.96130%0 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,789$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.751,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2917…be8fbacked Yes25c1,766$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.381942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,565$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.362036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a41…ce0fbacked Yes2c1,431$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes18c1,354$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010240.2%41 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd8…de98backed Yes15c1,302$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+471.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,300$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0742311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b9…7577backed Yes2c1,217$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b3…5bfabacked Yes8c1,208$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953517.1%6 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick12cpaid+63.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8b5…3591backed Yes4c1,076$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.82528%7 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…06acbacked Yes18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x610b…b5b2backed Yes15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes3c934.29$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.161693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Yes14c800$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1165639.3%22 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd850…59dbbacked Yes1c800$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.42714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d77…af31backed Yes16c623.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005536.4%20 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes5c600$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2742120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes2c577.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0710913.8%15 W · 94 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-42.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes17c527.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909545.3%43 W · 52 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes13c510.02$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0810313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6718…e623backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8014940.9%61 W · 88 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes8c496.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.757135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked No51c493.54$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.5415629.5%46 W · 110 L+8.9wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x976d…b79dbacked Yes29c487.05$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.682653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No71c320.58$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.9740939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c14…6342backed Yes16c320.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501560%9 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes10c316.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.038929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd7ea…795abacked Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes27c299.99$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick44cpaid-48.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a40…4093backed Yes21c298.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.569825.5%25 W · 73 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa61b…9d74backed Yes16c273.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.022343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b0…ba0bbacked No70c215.79$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.7417755.4%98 W · 79 L+17.5wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed No66c211.75$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.736346%29 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5973…5e13backed Yes20c210$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd84f…4fbcbacked Yes19c205.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes10c189$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.99124.2%22 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55b7…f23dbacked Yes19c179.38$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.081566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+68.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x516a…c312backed Yes16c172.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.211560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes19c170$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.66349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e2…e1e0backed Yes19c168.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-79.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8b6…11c5backed Yes20c151.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick34cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7d85…3a04backed Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320131.8%64 W · 137 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes10c140$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.931728.7%91 W · 226 L-35.7wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-48.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0773…9fefbacked Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeec7…f93ebacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf1…622abacked Yes9c122.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa1…3807backed No76c119.02$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.021338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-38.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes21c115.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.497341.1%30 W · 43 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x75ab…b20ebacked Yes52c108.93$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.494932.7%16 W · 33 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes29c106.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7124149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1016131.7%51 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e0…a93cbacked Yes16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7891…9b4ebacked Yes16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cd…cc94backed Yes24c82.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+447.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713c…41bbbacked No73c82.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.352744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed No79c80.14$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8310645.3%48 W · 58 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde39…f9abbacked Yes23c79.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184415.9%7 W · 37 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+143.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No73c70.67$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1622846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe3ae…217abacked Yes15c68.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.355911.9%7 W · 52 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes23c68.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7512040%48 W · 72 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f91…b4f9backed No71c63.83$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.515547.3%26 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x504d…98dcbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd58d…d447backed No79c59.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e6…f35cbacked No76c59.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1418639.8%74 W · 112 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe447…f604backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+45.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No77c49.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.58253.7%44 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes43c49.54$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.313022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e9a…ea86backed Yes57c44.07$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+41.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x830b…0a93backed No46c41.93$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.644459.1%26 W · 18 L+7.9wins+0.18per pick41cpaid+50.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No72c41.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7436035.3%127 W · 233 L-30.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x37ea…6cb9backed No73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2512959.7%77 W · 52 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3908…8fddbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x428a…6e79backed No58c27.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.37988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+43.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2651…1b4ebacked Yes39c25.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.032733.3%9 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x682e…70bdbacked No61c25.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.033745.9%17 W · 20 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+26.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No59c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.792944.8%13 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-28.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed No71c16.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.633658.3%21 W · 15 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+35.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x94c0…7824backed No77c14.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1986…0cd0backed No71c14.2$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.121457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad5a…e224backed No76c13.16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.161560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.524759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.