Middle East · resolved market
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb75c07f4252992808d7ca7d9828169c524b0fef44bf5adf78c327ef88469c986
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,382,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,577,806
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,382,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 931 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes | 0c | 315,394$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed Yes | 1c | 145,907$1,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.74 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 22c | 134,999$29,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,714.22 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 1c | 93,838$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.4 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes | 3c | 79,084$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.04 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…42d1backed Yes | 11c | 65,651$6,941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,940.97 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 0c | 60,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 7c | 51,953$3,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,876.72 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 6c | 44,028$2,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.47 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 38,687$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 50c | 38,014$18,940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,074.24 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 16c | 31,238$5,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,139.73 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 16c | 29,579$4,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,701.9 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 80c | 28,802$22,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,865.56 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes | 8c | 27,144$2,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.76 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 18c | 21,390$3,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,812.83 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 72c | 18,000$12,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,879.95 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 56c | 17,362$9,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,763.28 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 16c | 16,899$2,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,703.78 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 2c | 16,378$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.51 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +863.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 8c | 14,778$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.88 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 1c | 13,894$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.38 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 32c | 12,552$4,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,009.86 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 19c | 11,524$2,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,159.01 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 15c | 11,391$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.84 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 2c | 10,750$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.4 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 9,699$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 65c | 9,549$6,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,364.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,999$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.89 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 48c | 8,581$4,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,435.91 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 8,312$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.61 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe66b…91a9backed Yes | 3c | 8,241$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 1c | 8,185$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…799dbacked Yes | 0c | 8,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 64c | 7,656$4,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.93 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 56c | 7,529$4,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,250 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb14f…d825backed No | 66c | 7,499$4,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,573.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…95d9backed Yes | 1c | 7,410$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 7cpaid | +428.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd88…4037backed No | 75c | 7,208$5,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,829.07 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 69c | 7,137$4,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,194.5 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed No | 80c | 7,080$5,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.84 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 2c | 7,011$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 73c | 6,996$5,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,867.79 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebd…4a36backed No | 72c | 6,945$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,945.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,526$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.33 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 78c | 6,492$5,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.01 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f58…62a5backed No | 70c | 6,324$4,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.86 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 39c | 5,960$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.56 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 17c | 5,944$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.79 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 3c | 5,898$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.14 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 28c | 5,600$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035.99 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 9c | 5,321$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.81 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…8c52backed No | 76c | 5,304$4,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 5,300$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.5 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 23c | 5,177$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.35 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 38c | 5,031$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,928.98 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 15c | 5,019$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.44 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad7f…d0d4backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 32c | 5,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.97 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb439…1dacbacked Yes | 1c | 4,931$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 78c | 4,752$3,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.24 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +6.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes | 10c | 4,683$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.42 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 37c | 4,568$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.37 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 71c | 4,300$3,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.84 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 12c | 4,278$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.69 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 15c | 4,204$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.87 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 23c | 4,051$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.34 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…9d3abacked Yes | 35c | 4,000$1,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…d936backed Yes | 6c | 4,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 26c | 3,932$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.33 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…d449backed Yes | 27c | 3,905$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.47 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes | 16c | 3,858$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.68 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 31c | 3,834$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,655.01 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…57ccbacked Yes | 1c | 3,687$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +488.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 26c | 3,600$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.22 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed No | 64c | 3,548$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 68c | 3,543$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,404.4 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 8c | 3,522$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.25 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 9c | 3,505$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.55 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 28c | 3,423$943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.44 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 68c | 3,306$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,244.66 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 32c | 3,236$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.48 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…f5c2backed No | 37c | 3,209$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,034.36 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…d829backed Yes | 3c | 3,154$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 66c | 3,107$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,037.49 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,100$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed No | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…b33ebacked No | 76c | 3,000$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 49c | 2,988$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.91 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8f…c553backed No | 70c | 2,840$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.14 | 17 | 94.1%16 W · 1 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 69cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x055b…5c5fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,677$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 36c | 2,643$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.13 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed No | 64c | 2,640$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.45 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 37c | 2,590$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.5 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,588$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.74 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe129…3c8abacked No | 78c | 2,572$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.04 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 34c | 2,465$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.99 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 20c | 2,394$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.33 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2120…2647backed No | 63c | 2,275$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.03 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?this page
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 17, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 22, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?No won
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.