TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,382,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,577,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,382,145 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 931 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe4f6…d00ebacked Yes0c315,394$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed Yes1c145,907$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.7410417.3%18 W · 86 L-13.7wins-0.13per pick31cpaid-69.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes22c134,999$29,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,714.2214821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c93,838$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.48817%15 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Yes3c79,084$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,396.045151%26 W · 25 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+48.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa771…42d1backed Yes11c65,651$6,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,940.972766.7%18 W · 9 L+6.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+47.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes0c60,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-55.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa022…77f8backed Yes7c51,953$3,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,876.728937.1%33 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes6c44,028$2,715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,715.4715230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes0c38,687$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0590%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No50c38,014$18,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,074.2416125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes16c31,238$5,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,139.7321531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked Yes16c29,579$4,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,701.99613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf4d…33edbacked No80c28,802$22,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,865.567946.8%37 W · 42 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fdb…8ffcbacked Yes8c27,144$2,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes18c21,390$3,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,812.8313617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7cb…d447backed Yes72c18,000$12,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,879.953145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes56c17,362$9,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,763.285034%17 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes16c16,899$2,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,703.7812650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes2c16,378$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.511717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid+863.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes8c14,778$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.882917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb698…976abacked Yes1c13,894$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.385712.3%7 W · 50 L-0.2wins0.00per pick13cpaid+19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes32c12,552$4,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,009.864524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes19c11,524$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.015238.5%20 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes15c11,391$1,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.84588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes1c11,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+167.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes2c10,750$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.412740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c9,699$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0370%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No65c9,549$6,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,364.233040%12 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c8,999$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.893103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No48c8,581$4,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,435.9135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes8c8,312$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.6148923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe66b…91a9backed Yes3c8,241$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2432010%2 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-47%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a6d…7104backed Yes1c8,185$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.323930.8%12 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba3c…799dbacked Yes0c8,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed No64c7,656$4,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,776.932157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+13.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed Yes56c7,529$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2504835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb14f…d825backed No66c7,499$4,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,573.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+62.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a15…95d9backed Yes1c7,410$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.081030%3 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick7cpaid+428.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfd88…4037backed No75c7,208$5,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,829.071947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No69c7,137$4,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,194.535347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d16…7228backed No80c7,080$5,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,421.843046.7%14 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+33.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes2c7,011$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.173138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No73c6,996$5,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,867.797462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebd…4a36backed No72c6,945$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,945.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes7c6,526$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.337020%14 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No78c6,492$5,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.0112223%28 W · 94 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-41.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f58…62a5backed No70c6,324$4,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.862360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes39c5,960$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.567337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes17c5,944$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.7951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed Yes3c5,898$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.148939.3%35 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No28c5,600$1,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,035.9922333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes9c5,321$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.8122529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2db…8c52backed No76c5,304$4,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes5c5,300$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.52742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes23c5,177$1,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,210.3519829.3%58 W · 140 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes38c5,031$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,928.9832243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes15c5,019$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.4416739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Yes1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed Yes32c5,000$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.972544%11 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+69.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb439…1dacbacked Yes1c4,931$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick4cpaid+184.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a5…caaabacked No78c4,752$3,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.2422100%22 W · 0 L+6.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes10c4,683$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.421428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-58.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb119…8d46backed Yes37c4,568$1,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.374617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+50.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd324…b23cbacked No71c4,300$3,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.8414944.3%66 W · 83 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes12c4,278$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.697413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed Yes15c4,204$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.8718531.9%59 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed Yes23c4,051$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.3413022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xac11…9d3abacked Yes35c4,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc16…d936backed Yes6c4,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes26c3,932$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.3328126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf4…d449backed Yes27c3,905$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.473036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a63…b4efbacked Yes16c3,858$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.686936.2%25 W · 44 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No31c3,834$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,655.0136227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd187…57ccbacked Yes1c3,687$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+488.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Yes26c3,600$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.226947.8%33 W · 36 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8c9…e4b3backed No64c3,548$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,270.441656.3%9 W · 7 L+4.9wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+98.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes68c3,543$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,404.46238.7%24 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes8c3,522$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.2520736.2%75 W · 132 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes9c3,505$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.5519119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes28c3,423$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.4422627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes68c3,306$2,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.664854.2%26 W · 22 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc91b…93bdbacked No32c3,236$1,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,188.487745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652b…f5c2backed No37c3,209$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,034.363050%15 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+34.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9449…d829backed Yes3c3,154$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes66c3,107$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.4919739.1%77 W · 120 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes10c3,100$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29517018.2%31 W · 139 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+77.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed No67c3,000$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9904238.1%16 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5654…b33ebacked No76c3,000$2,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7342070%14 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No49c2,988$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.916221%13 W · 49 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-51.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2d8f…c553backed No70c2,840$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.141794.1%16 W · 1 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick69cpaid+37.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x055b…5c5fbacked Yes7c2,677$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes36c2,643$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.1322846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xab7b…f350backed No64c2,640$1,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.457067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes37c2,590$962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.549023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes32c2,588$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.7447334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe129…3c8abacked No78c2,572$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.041369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick65cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes34c2,465$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.9911323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes20c2,394$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.3348630.5%148 W · 338 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2120…2647backed No63c2,275$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.032352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-19.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.