TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xab7b…f350

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
243
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT7440.5%30 W · 44 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 74 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$94
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+431.9%+$431.91
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$319Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$318.59
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$93.7
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.4
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.75
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Norway vs. England: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.5
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+74.7%+$25.65
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
France vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.75
France vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.4
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+288.6%+$44.56
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.29
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Halfbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Argentina leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$30.75
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$107.5
Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$17.1
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$42
Showing 25 of 74 picks, newest first.
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT7067.1%47 W · 23 L+8.1wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+21.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
Middle East — the 70 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,507Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+77.3%+$1,164.59
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.67
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$106
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,426Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,425.81
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,772Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,771.92
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$662Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+96.7%+$640.38
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$305
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$585Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$377.37
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,015Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$1,269.71
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.52
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+155.4%+$77.69
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$222
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$143
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+85.6%+$149.88
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+39%+$78.06
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$675Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$675
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$51.25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,178Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$598.46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$901.65
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$56.47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+67.7%+$181.73
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+38.6%+$77.11
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+77.4%+$65.76
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$753Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+59.9%+$451.22
Showing 25 of 70 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST2766.7%18 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+43.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+31.1%+$217.6
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,299.54
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$2,974Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+25.9%+$769.68
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$829Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$828.69
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$28.3
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+30.1%+$110
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+68.5%+$47.09
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+636.5%+$3,890.29
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$46
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+186.1%+$211.4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$46
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$117.5
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$5,968Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.5%+$1,582
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.6
Will Trump announce tariffs on Australia on April 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,787Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,786.53
Was JFK assassination an inside job?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$253.75
Trump uses a recess appointment for Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+400%+$240
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$742Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST+165.1%+$1,224.43
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+34.5%+$1,173.55
Will Trump remove FBI director Christopher Wray?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+76.9%+$769.47
Another Trump Cabinet nominee withdrawn before inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+117.4%+$152.61
Will there be a US Government shutdown? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST+53.2%+$126.69
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangersbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$58
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.75
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$9.75
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockiesbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$9.4
San Francisco Giants vs. Kansas City Royalsbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.08
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+90.9%+$322.83
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$687Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$687
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,254Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,254.06
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$14.4
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$765Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+57.4%+$439.56
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$234.15
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Trump say "Suit" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$218
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$4,782Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,781.85
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.25
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$239.01
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 13, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-33.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.18
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$174.56
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+92.3%+$168
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 13% and 16% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Curtis Sliwa get between 16% and 19% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$44.5
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$172.2
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,171Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+74.1%+$868.16
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+200.1%+$1,060.27
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST60%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$42.5
All 4 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+66.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+271.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
Will Bitcoin reach $110K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,303Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+126.2%+$2,907.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$401.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$148
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$203.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.