TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,785,060
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,655,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,785,060 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 379 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe877…bb43backed Yes9c55,061$4,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,697.051414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-68.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes6c50,082$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,041.31828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf572…09f2backed Yes6c39,341$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200.466119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes10c38,356$3,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,866.2437533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83f…1527backed Yes2c31,470$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60c…a6a0backed Yes12c28,200$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,302.121729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes9c24,473$2,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,144.4510749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Yes8c20,387$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.05425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-65.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c17,754$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.0211419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes3c16,968$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.462847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes14c15,502$2,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.42317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes8c14,719$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.852634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes4c14,678$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-72.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No80c14,128$11,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,836.1735519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes15c13,760$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes14c12,318$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,713.63923.1%9 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-36.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8164…cffcbacked Yes27c11,348$3,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,013.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes8c10,991$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.322832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes9c10,852$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.813859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5573…41bdbacked Yes15c10,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes6c8,825$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.3216725.1%42 W · 125 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes8c8,033$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes2c8,027$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9355618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a0…2010backed Yes13c7,498$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.31546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes8c7,492$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.746051.7%31 W · 29 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa45d…a4e7backed Yes8c7,454$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebb…b114backed Yes17c7,096$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes14c7,058$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.881428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7feb…6612backed Yes9c6,998$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-49.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8356…7ad1backed Yes9c6,989$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.951330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011d…3d2fbacked Yes7c6,813$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.41910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084e…b618backed Yes10c6,324$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.68714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes1c6,151$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.168820.5%18 W · 70 L-7.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes10c6,000$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.1628320.5%58 W · 225 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c93…32c3backed Yes7c5,942$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e66…5e7fbacked Yes8c5,800$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e16…84d7backed Yes9c5,740$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.711631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes9c5,415$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001540%6 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…a820backed Yes11c5,222$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes6c5,177$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.829810.2%10 W · 88 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c27…b3a4backed Yes11c5,100$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes10c5,000$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.13517.1%6 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes4c4,934$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.111811.1%2 W · 16 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-71.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x444e…01d0backed Yes11c4,400$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.324042.5%17 W · 23 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf817…d678backed Yes8c4,270$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.51812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Yes8c4,196$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.43825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3f2…441dbacked Yes3c4,085$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4076…c448backed Yes2c4,060$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes16c4,017$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.595642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdabd…4783backed Yes10c4,006$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed No78c4,000$3,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8656740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60eb…a6d8backed Yes6c3,972$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.962119%4 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c9d…0dcabacked Yes1c3,966$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb5…5afdbacked Yes15c3,870$589 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.852835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-31%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes20c3,782$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.47740.3%31 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes14c3,765$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.851435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x458b…a46dbacked Yes3c3,546$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1795…8e9fbacked Yes8c3,510$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b9…4f10backed Yes15c3,423$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50060%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1316…c716backed Yes7c3,332$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.51822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick12cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes11c3,307$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.3813818.1%25 W · 113 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes6c3,275$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002119%4 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes4c3,242$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.578231.7%26 W · 56 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes12c3,224$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.468615.1%13 W · 73 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-39.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x00fe…9f53backed Yes10c3,087$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes6c3,022$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.6619435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes15c3,000$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.2815332.7%50 W · 103 L-0.6wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52be…a121backed Yes4c3,000$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2938…ed24backed Yes10c2,971$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x823d…e7e5backed Yes9c2,828$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.69728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46c7…c0f2backed Yes11c2,776$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.452913.8%4 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-63.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Yes15c2,730$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.743023.3%7 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5152…79a0backed Yes11c2,726$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.881822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fa5…231ebacked Yes2c2,715$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes15c2,634$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes9c2,602$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.634814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes7c2,596$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.274427.3%12 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes8c2,594$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2151618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-55.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes16c2,573$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.057428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ff…c5ecbacked Yes16c2,500$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Yes6c2,500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1552927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8866…dd1ebacked Yes7c2,464$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.882343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8576…b684backed Yes9c2,370$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8223…63cebacked Yes1c2,300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes6c2,300$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1414045%18 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+67.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc161…6af4backed Yes6c2,220$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9fe…0675backed Yes9c2,191$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83d6…0489backed Yes9c2,189$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.012321.7%5 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-57.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes10c2,152$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.764254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d05…b600backed Yes1c2,033$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes15c2,010$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes11c2,009$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2141936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes9c2,000$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes7c2,000$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14815238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xeef9…195ebacked Yes4c2,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x569e…67dbbacked No80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-22.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab60…b46cbacked Yes14c1,991$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2804422.7%10 W · 34 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes11c1,989$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0217021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd4…30a1backed Yes13c1,966$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.781414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-65.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49c5…f92abacked Yes1c1,934$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.