TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf572…09f2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: AI, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category AI at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST6119.7%12 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bill Clinton charged by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump reopen Alcatraz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$415.83
Obama federally charged in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$247.18
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,035Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,035.08
Will Trump jail Liz Cheney?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump jail Biden family member?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$304Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$303.56
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$321
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.45
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+55.5%+$998.29
Will Trump jail Fauci?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+37.2%+$37.2
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$422
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$101
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Files proving Epstein or Maxwell were Mossad released before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,140Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+50.7%+$578.3
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump jail Hillary Clinton?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$765Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$765
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$641Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$640.72
Will Larry Page be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$425
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$262Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+70%+$183.34
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+71.8%+$49.29
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Netanyahu out by 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$959.92
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$941Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$941
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$243.22
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by next Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+38.4%+$69.24
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+150%+$44.4
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$542Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+30.1%+$162.77
Hezbollah enters Israel in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.89
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST90%0 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$190
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,201.39
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$205
Adam Schiff charged with treason before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$65
Trump-Putin-Xi meeting before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-63.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+252.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$211.55
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2025, EDT+457.4%+$91.47
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+151.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+151.8%+$1,214.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+29.3%+$8.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Obama congratulate Mamdani by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$168.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Nov 1-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.