Us Politics · resolved market
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffc6af90d3fa254e5f511ab9e640bfcd656b4c728f82ca42a7b9db967760e94c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,072,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $941,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,072,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 407 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 44,002$8,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,966.54 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe97c…2a99backed No | 64c | 37,456$24,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,359.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 19c | 33,487$6,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,369.12 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 27,850$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,776.37 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 15c | 22,474$3,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,415.83 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 18c | 20,300$3,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700.84 | 141 | 25.5%36 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 9c | 20,221$1,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.74 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 19c | 18,388$3,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,441.24 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 2c | 17,032$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.49 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed Yes | 7c | 16,036$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 78c | 15,880$12,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,513.35 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 9c | 15,394$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.67 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 13c | 14,517$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.49 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed Yes | 2c | 13,544$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 7c | 12,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 9c | 11,620$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.77 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa56…f232backed Yes | 19c | 11,605$2,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,203 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 24c | 10,495$2,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.6 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 12c | 10,366$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.44 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…5c8fbacked Yes | 24c | 10,000$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…2846backed Yes | 26c | 9,791$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,528.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 17c | 9,522$1,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,651.43 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 8,706$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.91 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 29c | 8,614$2,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,534.95 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 18c | 8,610$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.58 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 8,377$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…3a00backed No | 76c | 7,967$6,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,917.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 8c | 7,057$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.79 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…b317backed No | 76c | 6,892$5,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 75c | 6,808$5,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.58 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 31c | 6,798$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.83 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 4c | 6,731$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.95 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 7c | 6,444$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.96 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 6,117$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.42 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked No | 78c | 6,000$4,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 31c | 5,990$1,881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880.73 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb9…7557backed Yes | 18c | 5,833$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 19c | 5,532$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029.24 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…5442backed No | 68c | 5,300$3,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…aa62backed Yes | 6c | 5,100$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d03…47bebacked Yes | 4c | 5,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 17c | 4,745$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked No | 68c | 4,471$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.39 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 3,999$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5e…8f57backed Yes | 15c | 3,880$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Yes | 2c | 3,725$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…a98cbacked No | 79c | 3,688$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 13c | 3,636$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.67 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 8c | 3,633$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.05 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed No | 67c | 3,587$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +217.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 27c | 3,550$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.31 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 22c | 3,288$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.92 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 6c | 3,236$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.25 | 142 | 30.3%43 W · 99 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 32c | 3,215$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…f944backed No | 75c | 3,184$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…e3c2backed Yes | 13c | 3,118$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.01 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 19c | 2,961$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed No | 79c | 2,908$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.25 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcffb…a6bebacked No | 56c | 2,691$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,191.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 2,610$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.64 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,578$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.23 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed Yes | 8c | 2,538$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 22c | 2,425$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.39 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 79c | 2,389$1,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.18 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 28c | 2,275$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.69 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,199$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.85 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed No | 63c | 2,195$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.25 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 1,955$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 24c | 1,929$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 1,888$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.79 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 1,888$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.04 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…6a5abacked Yes | 11c | 1,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…8921backed No | 77c | 1,816$1,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.74 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 68c | 1,696$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.86 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…a0f7backed Yes | 7c | 1,649$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbd…4503backed Yes | 20c | 1,625$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 8c | 1,581$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 20c | 1,527$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 32c | 1,519$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.08 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 68c | 1,506$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 6c | 1,495$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…29debacked Yes | 27c | 1,481$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.49 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed No | 77c | 1,480$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.67 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 77c | 1,447$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.34 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…1d9bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,432$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 36c | 1,421$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x998f…572abacked Yes | 2c | 1,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 76c | 1,350$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.58 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked No | 76c | 1,324$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.13 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…bd88backed No | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 4c | 1,280$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,263$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.33 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…6ee3backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.