TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7131…29cc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT2236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+57.6%+$205.15
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$69.7
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,355Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,355.45
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,176Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,175.74
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$172
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$4,475Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$3,108.28
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$37,113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47%+$17,443.42
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$126.98
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$407Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$407.02
Will Israel strike Syria on July 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+157.9%+$340.25
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$510
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.59
Israel strike on Iran on June 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.87
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$42.19
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23,116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$23,115.6
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.23
Will Iran declare war on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$195.38
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Israel military action against Iraq by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$164.76
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,485Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+25.7%+$894.01
Iran strike on Israel by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.64
Will Israel raid Greta Thunberg's ship by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT+32%+$39.55
All 22 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.43
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15.37
GPT ads by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+230.4%+$66.22
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$29.2
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$14.22
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$540Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$539.74
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,737Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+44.5%+$2,554.21
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$874Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$873.69
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$83.4
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+53.8%+$22.41
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,292Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+53.8%+$695.88
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.12
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.61
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$760Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$240
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$5,979Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+34.7%+$2,077.38
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$14,449Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$14,449.15
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$210
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15,616Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$4,404.51
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.32
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$244.75
Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$800.35
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,770Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+138.6%+$2,453.21
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$8,805Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$8,805.4
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,881Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,880.73
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.07
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.5
Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$819Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$819.15
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$582Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$581.94
US military action against Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30,911Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+28.9%+$8,919.48
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24,229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$24,229.41
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$89
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,753Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+67.6%+$3,887.07
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$4,089Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+75%+$3,065.38
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$315.25
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,915Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+79.5%+$1,522.68
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$4,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,700.16
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,160Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$840
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$429Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$428.51
Pump.fun >$5B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT+25%+$400
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,811Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,811.2
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$2,883Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,882.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20,900Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$9,099.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Gulf oil facilities before September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$64.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$105.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MSI Playoffs: Gen.G vs. T1backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.