Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x136b33d1184f4f249e01ab9af3d5de88f1777563091a5827b811191c63a1dc73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $298,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $256,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 80,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed Yes | 8c | 18,442$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.14 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 2c | 14,103$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 6,204$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.12 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…1d52backed Yes | 8c | 5,963$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes | 1c | 5,479$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 6c | 5,384$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.26 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 5,300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 4,681$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.91 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 2c | 4,113$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 76c | 4,053$3,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.11 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…1183backed Yes | 5c | 3,751$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,848$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 68c | 2,706$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.98 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 14c | 2,429$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.79 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5f…cbbfbacked No | 68c | 2,000$1,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…3e45backed Yes | 32c | 1,972$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,839$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 10c | 1,751$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.07 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 32c | 1,600$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 1,592$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked Yes | 3c | 1,532$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes | 2c | 1,510$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 78c | 1,458$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.42 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Yes | 5c | 1,454$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0c…656ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,408$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 4c | 1,198$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 3c | 1,151$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 6c | 1,100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,033$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…f1a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x807b…9030backed Yes | 53c | 936.63$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x599d…6521backed Yes | 11c | 878.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes | 17c | 869.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Yes | 11c | 830.37$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.64 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 11c | 799.98$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 72c | 770.57$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.92 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 718.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.94 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 20c | 695.31$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.43 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 31c | 666$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.38 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb21f…6705backed Yes | 3c | 658.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 16c | 637.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 52c | 576.06$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.74 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…d710backed Yes | 3c | 538.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes | 8c | 516.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes | 20c | 506.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 26c | 488.6$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 75c | 467.57$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.05 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 14c | 457.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 8c | 438.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfb…d312backed Yes | 4c | 428.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 423.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 416.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…5990backed Yes | 13c | 413.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 6c | 399.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 29c | 360.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.73 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef4…520dbacked Yes | 6c | 355.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…00fcbacked No | 13c | 348.19$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.34 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8a…3ec2backed Yes | 13c | 342.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 7c | 335.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 74c | 325.11$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 32c | 302$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.38 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b3…0b3dbacked Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 29c | 297.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 31c | 292.94$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 74c | 290$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 7c | 274.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…60f9backed Yes | 7c | 274.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed No | 75c | 268.19$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes | 8c | 236.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c67…13d1backed Yes | 9c | 232.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…24c0backed Yes | 8c | 225$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…befdbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 31c | 208.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 19c | 208.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 32c | 189.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 12c | 172.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 67c | 170.17$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…52d3backed Yes | 12c | 162.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…a080backed No | 13c | 154.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 16c | 153$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…3860backed Yes | 14c | 145.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…c3c3backed No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb90…d846backed No | 79c | 137.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfb…8445backed No | 16c | 128$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +81.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked Yes | 13c | 121.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce0…0c1cbacked Yes | 17c | 118.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 13c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9d…478abacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f512backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…c8e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01cc…4c2abacked Yes | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…182cbacked No | 25c | 99.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 14c | 98.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.