TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iran on June 27?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$298,283
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$256,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $298,283 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Yes0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16010634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed Yes8c18,442$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,484.143619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac86…e59cbacked Yes2c14,103$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.91728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes3c6,204$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.123912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-55.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c2…1d52backed Yes8c5,963$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes1c5,479$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.630%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes6c5,384$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.269711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c5,300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes4c4,681$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.912078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed Yes2c4,113$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.797413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No76c4,053$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.1112245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20c2…1183backed Yes5c3,751$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5560%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c2,848$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.61504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No68c2,706$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.9837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes14c2,429$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.79385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a5f…cbbfbacked No68c2,000$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3504…3e45backed Yes32c1,972$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes2c1,839$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.574835.4%17 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed Yes10c1,751$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.076121.3%13 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes32c1,600$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-67.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes5c1,592$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.371235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7131…29ccbacked Yes3c1,532$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.192236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb36…f0afbacked Yes2c1,510$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-79.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No78c1,458$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.42683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+30.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Yes5c1,454$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0c…656ebacked Yes14c1,408$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb81a…eec2backed Yes4c1,198$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.23120%0 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes3c1,151$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.958617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes6c1,100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.663920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c1,100$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.7489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes21c1,033$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.631241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea89…f1a6backed Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x807b…9030backed Yes53c936.63$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x599d…6521backed Yes11c878.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed Yes17c869.91$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Yes11c830.37$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.642123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes11c799.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.212333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No72c770.57$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.925642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes20c718.77$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes20c695.31$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.436023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes31c666$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.381323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-64.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb21f…6705backed Yes3c658.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+19%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16b8…5201backed Yes16c637.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-43.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No52c576.06$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.7420549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02f0…d710backed Yes3c538.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c4…bbc5backed Yes8c516.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e4b…3c6dbacked Yes20c506.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003461.8%21 W · 13 L+8.4wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+48%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick37cpaid+38.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes26c488.6$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.214742.6%20 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed No75c467.57$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.057147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes14c457.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.128045%36 W · 44 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes8c438.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0313629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbcfb…d312backed Yes4c428.65$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c423.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes19c416.82$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.918515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x85f2…5990backed Yes13c413.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes6c399.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6440939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Yes29c360.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.733542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeef4…520dbacked Yes6c355.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20370%0 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x880e…00fcbacked No13c348.19$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.342060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe8a…3ec2backed Yes13c342.55$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4590%0 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes7c335.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick19cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No74c325.11$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.0731241.7%130 W · 182 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+66.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed No32c302$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3816537%61 W · 104 L+11.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x26b3…0b3dbacked Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.370%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No29c297.99$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21316651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes31c292.94$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.917946.8%37 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No74c290$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.5328427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes7c274.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3626619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5599…60f9backed Yes7c274.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc70e…7cd6backed No75c268.19$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes8c236.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-71.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c67…13d1backed Yes9c232.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99b0…24c0backed Yes8c225$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3271…befdbacked Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Yes31c208.77$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.81315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-15.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes19c208.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6926616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.84924.5%12 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed Yes32c189.75$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.846965.2%45 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes12c172.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-56.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…4597backed No67c170.17$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.8212654%68 W · 58 L+18.8wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+128.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x89ed…52d3backed Yes12c162.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf056…a080backed No13c154.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.681136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes16c153$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9317931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…3860backed Yes14c145.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5d0d…c3c3backed No14c142.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.861050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb90…d846backed No79c137.6$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+141.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6bfb…8445backed No16c128$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+81.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb83c…92bfbacked Yes13c121.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-54.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce0…0c1cbacked Yes17c118.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes13c113$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.135032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173737.8%14 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e9d…478abacked Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.985616.1%9 W · 47 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-73.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc1b0…071cbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.92213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-76.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27b4…f512backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.69948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…c8e7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01cc…4c2abacked Yes77c99.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.09540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0308…182cbacked No25c99.85$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.54332.6%14 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Yes14c98.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.