Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1cea47a71a65f0880b1d2ba1892fa2f7b3d22c6142f7e83bba445e881e8a1e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,651,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,133,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,651,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x203b…acd1backed No | 0c | 206,939$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed No | 0c | 185,570$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…920abacked No | 1c | 150,860$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…3ed9backed No | 0c | 127,711$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 0c | 117,919$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…21f7backed No | 0c | 111,873$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked No | 1c | 111,812$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e43…bb4abacked No | 0c | 75,349$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3504…3e45backed No | 0c | 74,500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 4c | 68,291$2,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,580.84 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 0c | 61,329$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed No | 1c | 55,042$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3b…a80abacked No | 0c | 52,701$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…58d1backed No | 0c | 52,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 1c | 50,453$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.93 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…14a2backed No | 0c | 49,670$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa43c…563ebacked No | 0c | 44,494$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34a…8251backed No | 0c | 43,949$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 43,434$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.39 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked No | 0c | 40,305$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 31cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5376…4d0dbacked No | 0c | 37,206$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…67b0backed No | 1c | 36,115$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…6fd3backed No | 0c | 32,609$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb50…8cbabacked No | 0c | 31,152$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…ccf8backed No | 0c | 30,200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…94b5backed No | 0c | 29,056$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…8797backed No | 0c | 25,181$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked No | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…752bbacked No | 5c | 21,701$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3114…3dbabacked No | 0c | 21,507$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…35a1backed No | 1c | 19,560$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcf…60d5backed No | 0c | 19,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…6d9ebacked No | 3c | 18,513$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…838bbacked No | 1c | 17,587$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…7feabacked No | 0c | 17,550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…f262backed No | 0c | 16,725$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd033…8aafbacked No | 1c | 16,306$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bb…0067backed No | 0c | 15,769$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe96…b734backed No | 1c | 15,705$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccf…4cbebacked No | 0c | 15,700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…93cfbacked No | 0c | 15,544$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…39fcbacked No | 0c | 15,360$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf34…8816backed No | 3c | 15,061$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7940…376ebacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 14,173$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…2dd2backed No | 1c | 13,547$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…ccd5backed No | 0c | 13,187$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…d440backed No | 14c | 12,538$1,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4904…8be7backed No | 0c | 12,340$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 1c | 11,933$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…cb66backed No | 0c | 11,838$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked No | 0c | 11,627$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…8f38backed No | 2c | 11,521$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb025…ccedbacked No | 0c | 11,340$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…9194backed No | 0c | 11,013$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a9…ec57backed No | 0c | 11,001$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c5…65d1backed No | 2c | 11,000$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed No | 1c | 10,883$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.9 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 0c | 10,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…70edbacked No | 0c | 10,549$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c5…f860backed No | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…0709backed No | 0c | 10,271$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dd…3f39backed No | 0c | 10,078$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…05e7backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -83%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4553…f8d6backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -64%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…21bdbacked No | 0c | 10,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…2749backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…eddfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed No | 0c | 10,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 2c | 9,700$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.29 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd337…60b7backed No | 1c | 8,923$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…6b4bbacked No | 1c | 8,799$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +215.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 8,370$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f3…e4c6backed No | 0c | 8,351$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 2c | 8,032$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.61 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcade…ffe0backed No | 0c | 7,778$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…dfc1backed No | 0c | 7,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a74…cd83backed No | 1c | 7,233$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…5990backed No | 0c | 7,105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked No | 1c | 6,848$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 4c | 6,751$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.34 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…4a21backed No | 2c | 6,532$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 5c | 6,298$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.83 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8c…2e4bbacked No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed No | 3c | 5,951$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…565fbacked No | 1c | 5,875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…dd79backed No | 0c | 5,702$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed No | 0c | 5,646$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…94abbacked No | 0c | 5,175$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4a…10bebacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1156backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2975…1c2bbacked No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b04abacked No | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +195.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked No | 0c | 4,739$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf1…bbd5backed No | 0c | 4,689$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 7c | 4,500$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 1c | 4,433$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f48…d47fbacked No | 1c | 4,234$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.