TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iran on June 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,651,331
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,133,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,651,331 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x203b…acd1backed No0c206,939$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.02911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f1…7c30backed No0c185,570$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.0330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe49…920abacked No1c150,860$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a41…3ed9backed No0c127,711$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No0c117,919$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27d6…21f7backed No0c111,873$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked No1c111,812$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e43…bb4abacked No0c75,349$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.7740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3504…3e45backed No0c74,500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No4c68,291$2,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.84229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No0c61,329$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.331332.3%3 W · 130 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed No1c55,042$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6796121.3%13 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3b…a80abacked No0c52,701$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeada…58d1backed No0c52,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No1c50,453$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.939711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c76…14a2backed No0c49,670$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa43c…563ebacked No0c44,494$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.881010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-63%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd34a…8251backed No0c43,949$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c43,434$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.39504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27ed…9f1dbacked No0c40,305$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.611070%7 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.39per pick31cpaid+80.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5376…4d0dbacked No0c37,206$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ef…67b0backed No1c36,115$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e48…6fd3backed No0c32,609$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3290%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb50…8cbabacked No0c31,152$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1551717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No0c30,200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.43619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3662…94b5backed No0c29,056$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc383…8797backed No0c25,181$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked No0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ee…752bbacked No5c21,701$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3114…3dbabacked No0c21,507$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba6…35a1backed No1c19,560$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fcf…60d5backed No0c19,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6a14…6d9ebacked No3c18,513$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked No1c17,587$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7737…7feabacked No0c17,550$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19b7…f262backed No0c16,725$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd033…8aafbacked No1c16,306$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.36650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10bb…0067backed No0c15,769$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.661827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe96…b734backed No1c15,705$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccf…4cbebacked No0c15,700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7487…93cfbacked No0c15,544$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.43520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb389…39fcbacked No0c15,360$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf34…8816backed No3c15,061$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.8540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7940…376ebacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c14,173$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.842078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa922…2dd2backed No1c13,547$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…ccd5backed No0c13,187$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5be7…d440backed No14c12,538$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4904…8be7backed No0c12,340$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No1c11,933$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-26%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbf4…cb66backed No0c11,838$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2417…5d1ebacked No0c11,627$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-71.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33fb…8f38backed No2c11,521$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb025…ccedbacked No0c11,340$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f36…9194backed No0c11,013$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53a9…ec57backed No0c11,001$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+108.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80c5…65d1backed No2c11,000$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed No1c10,883$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.96111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No0c10,700$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4414827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e88…70edbacked No0c10,549$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9c5…f860backed No0c10,500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5257…0709backed No0c10,271$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dd…3f39backed No0c10,078$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-83%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4553…f8d6backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c8e…21bdbacked No0c10,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x566e…2749backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28aa…eddfbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed No0c10,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No2c9,700$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.294429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd337…60b7backed No1c8,923$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd66f…6b4bbacked No1c8,799$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.3633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+215.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No0c8,370$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9426619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f3…e4c6backed No0c8,351$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No2c8,032$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.611235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcade…ffe0backed No0c7,778$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb7a…dfc1backed No0c7,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a74…cd83backed No1c7,233$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f2…5990backed No0c7,105$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2160%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe561…a68dbacked No1c6,848$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-44.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No4c6,751$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.34385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1a1…4a21backed No2c6,532$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No5c6,298$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.8319930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c8c…2e4bbacked No0c6,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+124.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06c6…4162backed No3c5,951$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-82%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x242f…565fbacked No1c5,875$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e3…dd79backed No0c5,702$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed No0c5,646$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7660%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f6…94abbacked No0c5,175$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce4a…10bebacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf21a…1156backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2975…1c2bbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdec2…b04abacked No1c5,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+195.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ca…64dfbacked No0c4,739$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.86922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf1…bbd5backed No0c4,689$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No7c4,500$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No1c4,433$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.43748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f48…d47fbacked No1c4,234$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.