TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iran on June 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,010
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,010 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf577…972ebacked No3c16,387$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.641127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ee…752bbacked No3c11,676$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e43…bb4abacked No1c11,100$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcc0…4353backed No4c10,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-13.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeb77…1dd0backed No5c8,627$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No3c8,515$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.934429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No2c8,391$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.889711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ef…67b0backed No4c8,170$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No0c7,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.52321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c6,898$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.712078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf34…8816backed No4c6,641$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf969…7ce8backed No12c5,886$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7006121.3%13 W · 48 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No4c5,299$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.56229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa510…1f80backed No4c5,000$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.477413.5%10 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed No0c4,444$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.33911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-49.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20c2…1183backed No4c4,175$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6360%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No1c3,265$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.67504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No5c3,214$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3b…a80abacked No1c3,129$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2150%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b1b…fa1dbacked No12c2,811$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No3c2,553$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.991235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd2e…0626backed No2c2,329$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4270%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa68e…4b67backed No1c2,269$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x242f…565fbacked No3c1,847$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfa0…a852backed No1c1,843$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes78c1,745$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.2856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No1c1,543$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.296023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No2c1,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.517931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cf1…bbd5backed No4c1,447$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5570%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed No6c1,296$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778721.8%19 W · 68 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa922…2dd2backed No2c1,148$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38c9…776abacked No4c1,053$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9b…9dc7backed No5c1,028$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2417…5d1ebacked No1c1,005$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-71.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfca2…820cbacked No2c1,002$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked No5c999.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No5c999.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5319445.9%89 W · 105 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0308…182cbacked No3c897.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.344332.6%14 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6c7…0b56backed No2c856.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed No18c849.74$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.042123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x933b…ba50backed No6c843.5$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.59666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+235%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x284f…31efbacked No1c810$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f3…e75bbacked No5c800$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No2c756.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5913629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No4c691$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2624234.3%83 W · 159 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd172…c627backed No5c630.03$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No4c600$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.699955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xecef…b593backed No15c595.04$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.216543.1%28 W · 37 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No3c588.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.846650%33 W · 33 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+25.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked No4c583.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4612524.8%31 W · 94 L-9.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No18c558.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011141.4%46 W · 65 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…e69dbacked No4c529.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+304.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb294…73eabacked No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e1e…c5e3backed No16c484.03$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.761926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No12c481.09$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2551138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7a4…91dabacked No5c441.7$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+114.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f6d…d8d6backed No4c435.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10bb…0067backed No4c434.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No3c392.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0467841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa536…e1d1backed No4c374.38$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No9c368.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6489617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x714b…d071backed No4c353.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.582934.5%10 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+154%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe6…7e61backed No30c335.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-53.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ad3…8448backed No5c330.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed No5c328.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.852634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked No6c327.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd66f…6b4bbacked No6c321.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+215.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x781c…049fbacked No6c308.64$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.171747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c8…e0cabacked No4c306.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe127…fe33backed No4c302.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7487…93cfbacked No7c297.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03e5…dd0fbacked No12c290.76$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81936.8%7 W · 12 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+48.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce57…a278backed No4c265.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No5c264.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No7c256.77$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.162128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f3…9329backed No5c233.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cec…abb3backed No5c228$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec1c…5798backed No7c226.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…ccd5backed No6c205.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed No5c202$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.38515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdfa…d143backed No14c155$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.972015%3 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1120…70adbacked No14c138.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.