Middle East · resolved market
Israel strike on Iran on June 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18a6babc7c4bb20e58c8515ea0aa545784301a47ea2f17de89d23f028c493110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 12,529$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.47 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes | 15c | 11,229$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.21 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 6,972$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 2c | 6,030$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…c6d8backed Yes | 2c | 5,488$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 5c | 5,337$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.06 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 4c | 4,523$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 3,446$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 2,982$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -81%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,932$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 72 | 1.4%1 W · 71 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes | 77c | 2,672$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 1c | 2,255$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa789…fb63backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 17c | 1,978$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.12 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 1,770$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85f2…7db1backed Yes | 3c | 1,590$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 46c | 1,543$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.58 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 11c | 1,435$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.85 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…e320backed Yes | 80c | 1,433$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,141.02 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,383$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 7c | 1,365$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,335$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 2c | 1,298$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Yes | 11c | 1,193$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked No | 27c | 1,076$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.57 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 5c | 1,050$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | +13.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb274…d2e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,046$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 1,031$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 123 | 5.7%7 W · 116 L | -10.1wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…f1a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,000$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 18c | 888$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +8.6wins | +0.16per pick | 14cpaid | +154.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 14c | 882.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.62 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 49c | 847.02$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.54 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550b…ca56backed Yes | 2c | 816.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 13c | 809.46$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.23 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…5201backed Yes | 13c | 776.31$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a9…045cbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca39…164bbacked Yes | 4c | 668.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…9120backed Yes | 2c | 656.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 50c | 643.25$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.57 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 78c | 613.3$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.76 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…e59cbacked Yes | 4c | 564.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 555$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 17c | 507$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…85ecbacked Yes | 11c | 469.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes | 5c | 436.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…aafbbacked No | 47c | 431.47$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 62c | 428.51$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa597…c90dbacked Yes | 3c | 397.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e82…f3b0backed Yes | 74c | 394.63$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 390.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.81 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1b…2c14backed Yes | 3c | 381.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 26c | 365.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.85 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 8c | 357.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1d…63d9backed Yes | 73c | 301$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5605…2113backed Yes | 5c | 300.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b3…0b3dbacked Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 5c | 272$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 16c | 269.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 245.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 36c | 234.85$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.48 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 70c | 227.04$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 77c | 220.47$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…8e2fbacked Yes | 75c | 201$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d8…12febacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6d…3c85backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…5b1ebacked Yes | 23c | 198.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 10c | 195.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270c…f377backed Yes | 68c | 193.64$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 25c | 183$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 242 | 34.3%83 W · 159 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 10c | 182$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa727…8289backed Yes | 12c | 166.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 19c | 163.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.41 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 27c | 163.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 21c | 162.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…9f1dbacked No | 23c | 155.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.39per pick | 31cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c7…3d9cbacked Yes | 68c | 136.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.78 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 20c | 132.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…a6d2backed Yes | 76c | 132.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 80c | 132$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…292ebacked No | 23c | 130$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed Yes | 25c | 127.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…e1e4backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…0473backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb83c…92bfbacked Yes | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 32c | 115.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 23c | 113.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 133 | 2.3%3 W · 130 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 26c | 109.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb60…bf57backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…c2acbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +181.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4051…0a90backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…c8e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb5…ae86backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd678…86a5backed Yes | 23c | 99.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strike on Iran on June 29?this page
- Israel strike on Iran on June 14?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 15?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 16?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 17?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 18?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 19?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 20?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 22?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 23?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 24?Yes won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 25?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 26?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 27?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 28?No won
- Israel strike on Iran on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.