TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel strike on Iran on June 17?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$562,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$413,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $562,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d9f…9790backed No2c53,796$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.8435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No0c50,127$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.682321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa406…ebb9backed No0c37,847$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No4c18,828$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.567247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No9c17,990$1,603 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,603.344126.8%11 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No3c15,887$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.963225%8 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-52.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No4c14,346$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.74429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+34.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09f8…cc82backed No1c12,607$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b98…a36ebacked No0c11,066$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No0c10,732$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1526619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c10,678$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.412078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed61…7d6bbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e3…30b5backed No1c9,694$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ed…33bebacked No1c9,575$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.66608.3%5 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-68.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6897…cb1ebacked No0c8,896$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked No3c8,223$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed No4c7,737$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick33cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b19…d962backed No1c7,735$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No2c7,398$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.971235.7%7 W · 116 L-10.1wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-83.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No3c6,885$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.529711.3%11 W · 86 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No2c5,946$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.23504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No3c5,639$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.64140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No3c4,945$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes80c4,000$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80012245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28a2…05e7backed No5c3,988$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.98296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9196…c311backed No6c3,879$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-83%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a0…08c9backed No3c3,821$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3f5…560bbacked No0c3,688$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5724…73e5backed No11c3,347$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No1c3,106$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2147334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e35…c89abacked No5c3,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1361216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d22…5791backed No2c2,956$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9058…5d6cbacked No4c2,678$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf626…8a12backed No8c2,632$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c2,382$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.021,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No4c2,250$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9914827%40 W · 108 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa431…677fbacked No2c2,202$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.651520%3 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-61.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5444…7a6bbacked No1c2,137$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No8c1,773$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.877035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No9c1,615$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.6385.3%2 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No14c1,560$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6367…e938backed No6c1,500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df2…5e4bbacked No2c1,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…eb1cbacked No1c1,448$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6808…fdb0backed No5c1,347$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x12d8…4a5abacked No2c1,320$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed No17c1,299$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.833315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-37.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No7c1,250$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.612333.3%41 W · 82 L+13.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+28.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked No1c1,240$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.124327.9%12 W · 31 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No8c1,195$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3622333.6%75 W · 148 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+28.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ca7…5361backed No3c1,122$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No11c1,077$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed No2c1,048$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.891450%7 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.13600%0 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No5c986.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.942334.8%8 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+103.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd57c…afc6backed No2c957.61$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.47837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x271c…af71backed No2c953.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x242f…565fbacked No6c940.03$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.13175.9%1 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4dc…a504backed No2c801.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa768…eb1bbacked No3c747.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No3c673.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f8…3186backed No3c650$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-68.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270c…f377backed Yes80c640.95$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.956541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x454b…4b2cbacked No2c572.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…a861backed No18c549.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x968b…549bbacked No19c522.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+39.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe731…c940backed No3c520.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…ccd5backed No5c509.37$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked No25c504.48$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.161936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204316.3%7 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e3…e145backed No2c465.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a96…0636backed No3c446.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No6c431.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.559831.6%31 W · 67 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb73…370fbacked No3c430$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-78.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecc1…3ee6backed No3c428.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No7c421$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.57663%2 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-95.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f28…82e0backed No3c386.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x092f…243ebacked No3c374.15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked No9c370.17$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.32229.1%2 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-78.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ded…ba6cbacked No28c357.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc03…c3d2backed No3c357.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e1…3da7backed No14c354$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No6c341.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016739.5%66 W · 101 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked No9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-85.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69c6…ab80backed No3c324.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbc7…167ebacked No8c312.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fa…3fa6backed No19c263.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No23c262.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3710634%36 W · 70 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfb…8445backed No14c242.76$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+81.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dd7…cddabacked No7c236.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb80…9d8abacked No9c205$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8196…46c5backed No10c201.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…fa62backed No23c200.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.511338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid-0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed No10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195736.8%21 W · 36 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed Yes71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5821259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2fad…b0e6backed No10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e2…7882backed Yes73c200$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.881250%6 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.