TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2dd7…cdda

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
98
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 57 out of 100; worst NHL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2025, EDT3116.1%5 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+140.4%+$563.92
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.46
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+506.3%+$65.82
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+826.9%+$90.96
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.61
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 190–204 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Elon tweet 160–174 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$145.99
Will Elon tweet 220–234 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Elon tweet 205–219 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$167.74
Will Elon tweet 130–144 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+162.2%+$53.01
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.59
Will Elon tweet 115–129 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$176.13
Will Elon tweet 100–114 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.64
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. invade Afghanistan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$95.75
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump visit Israel before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Trump’s approval rating be 45.0–45.4% on July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Trump approval >45% on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+43.9%+$102.63
Trump approval >40% on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will the U.S. invade Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$310.03
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥46.5% on June 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$29.99
US military action against Iran by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+493.5%+$147.55
Will Trump's approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on June 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$58
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.5% and 45.9% on June 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Trump's approval rating be 46.5% or higher on June 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$91
Will Trump's approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on June 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$51
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on June 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+1,026%+$430.91
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 44.5% on June 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$66
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$61
Will Trump announce military actions against Iran by Friday? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT1520%3 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire before August? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$22.74
Iran x Israel conflict ends before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$180
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+41.9%+$25.06
Will Israel invade Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$32
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$71
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will the Iranian regime fall before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$381.04
US x Iran ceasefire before July? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
US military action against Iran before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Israel strike on Iran on June 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Israel strike on Iran on June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Israel strike on Iran on June 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Iran strike on Israel by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$63
Iran strike on Israel by Monday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
All 15 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2025, EDT988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick64cpaid+31.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$151.64
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+1,878.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+1,878.2%+$206.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NHL: Ovechkin final season? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.