Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b7f441f10ec4924c8a90d44955473fd5ee6f82c40baa0c29eee8cb2992e72fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $868,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $472,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $868,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 242 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 37,333$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.34 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 3c | 37,312$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.38 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 29,812$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.72 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 1c | 28,955$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 1c | 22,222$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.22 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 17,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.19 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 16,441$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 1c | 15,750$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 5c | 15,237$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.85 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 1c | 13,880$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.57 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 0c | 12,466$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 6c | 10,527$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 0c | 10,441$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 10,259$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 21c | 10,000$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.34 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 1c | 8,924$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 4c | 7,649$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 6c | 7,517$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.03 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 3c | 7,228$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.27 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 6c | 6,465$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.43 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 11c | 6,373$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.67 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 1c | 6,300$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,364$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.99 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 1c | 5,293$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 4,657$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 15c | 4,516$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,411$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 16c | 4,196$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.2 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 1c | 3,967$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 6c | 3,607$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.1 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 2c | 3,500$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 1c | 3,333$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 20c | 3,294$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.94 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 1c | 3,189$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 3,108$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.4 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.93 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 5c | 2,961$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.49 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 1c | 2,925$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 1c | 2,905$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 2c | 2,884$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 2,794$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.47 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 2c | 2,768$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 20c | 2,594$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.88 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe79…9d68backed Yes | 1c | 2,588$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3485…d8bbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,311$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd41d…4cf6backed Yes | 4c | 2,286$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 3c | 2,246$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 2,059$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.14 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 1c | 2,016$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,004$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.98 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1012…c4eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,991$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 4c | 1,956$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,835$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.58 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,727$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 1,702$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.99 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 78c | 1,684$1,318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.12 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 7c | 1,684$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…5acebacked Yes | 2c | 1,653$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 21c | 1,644$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.24 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…5102backed Yes | 2c | 1,581$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 1c | 1,516$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,492$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad3…8448backed Yes | 1c | 1,431$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe386…385abacked Yes | 3c | 1,411$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…5a53backed Yes | 24c | 1,333$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,300$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.99 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 22c | 1,291$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf156…792abacked Yes | 6c | 1,252$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 14c | 1,135$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 9c | 1,100$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.26 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 20c | 1,088$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9263…1999backed Yes | 2c | 1,084$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 98 | 1%1 W · 97 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081d…9b39backed Yes | 3c | 1,030$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 74c | 1,015$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…b294backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fd…6ecdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 16c | 999.98$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 895.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 79c | 895.7$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.45 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 23c | 843.99$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.2 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…cddabacked Yes | 8c | 799.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 20c | 799.91$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 799$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e8…6297backed Yes | 3c | 763.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 20c | 750$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 6c | 730.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 5c | 716$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65fc…beacbacked Yes | 2c | 703.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 689.32$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 8c | 675.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 24c | 674.73$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.96 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…5a0cbacked Yes | 21c | 666.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 19c | 644.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.65 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 26c | 639.84$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.58 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.