Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84ab58e5b5feb270215150e0e360da5ed2a052ee277b5039c0320cf54985c30d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 2c | 19,991$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.29 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,954$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 15,666$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.62 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,405$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 2c | 12,755$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.43 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 11,458$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.98 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 4c | 9,234$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.1 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,343$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 5,812$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.95 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 1c | 5,451$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 5c | 5,425$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 5,419$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,217$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.97 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 10c | 4,883$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.77 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,608$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 15c | 4,135$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.85 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…e333backed Yes | 5c | 3,908$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.77 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 3,503$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 6c | 3,216$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.23 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,302$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,203$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.44 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,133$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 2c | 2,113$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 5c | 2,038$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 10c | 2,035$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.28 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,027$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 2,027$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 5c | 1,984$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.68 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 2c | 1,939$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 5c | 1,771$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.71 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 1,764$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7a…6f28backed Yes | 5c | 1,646$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 1c | 1,338$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,179$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x918a…9cb7backed Yes | 2c | 1,144$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a3…1f07backed Yes | 9c | 1,126$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,070$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd8…3047backed Yes | 2c | 1,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…b049backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…797cbacked Yes | 12c | 1,016$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 1,002$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 4c | 908.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 871.7$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 3c | 854.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3b…f625backed Yes | 1c | 819.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 2c | 699.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 14c | 650$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 9c | 619.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 3c | 599.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 15c | 595.3$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 7c | 595.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 12c | 530.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d47…5a53backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 10c | 496.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 463.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…e8ccbacked Yes | 9c | 434.07$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 417.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dea…8263backed Yes | 2c | 401.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 14c | 392.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 13c | 387.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268b…024fbacked Yes | 11c | 355.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4d…5f9fbacked Yes | 3c | 350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…edd3backed Yes | 15c | 294$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f4…8082backed Yes | 5c | 275.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a3…4015backed Yes | 8c | 251$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…48ecbacked Yes | 13c | 228$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bda…52e7backed Yes | 12c | 224.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ce…b5d6backed Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 8c | 207.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…5e3cbacked Yes | 6c | 206.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae9…5f74backed Yes | 14c | 202.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x196d…f82cbacked Yes | 5c | 200.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 10c | 190$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 14c | 184.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 16c | 176.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 11c | 174.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 11c | 170.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b9…6f3dbacked Yes | 7c | 168$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…736abacked Yes | 15c | 165.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…77ebbacked Yes | 11c | 159$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…afd5backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…6c85backed Yes | 12c | 149$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 14c | 128.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…9d0abacked Yes | 14c | 118.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd412…3066backed Yes | 14c | 112$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41e…ede7backed Yes | 16c | 112$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 13c | 111.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45e…1e25backed Yes | 15c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…8059backed Yes | 11c | 107.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 12c | 101.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6554…bbd6backed Yes | 15c | 98.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x311c…f16fbacked Yes | 11c | 96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…a559backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…c868backed Yes | 11c | 89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ce…533abacked Yes | 15c | 87.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.