Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x695d9dfdaba6d464fd54bf00c2438b09ec3c4517dbc681363595cea90cd3297b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 22,222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 10,350$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.6 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 9c | 10,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 7,910$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.49 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 7c | 6,765$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.97 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 8c | 6,348$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.49 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 4,548$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 8c | 4,318$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 10c | 4,147$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 4,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,999$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,860$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.07 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 6c | 2,785$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,525$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.54 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 1c | 2,218$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 6c | 2,173$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.9 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 13c | 2,054$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.05 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,750$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,714$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,450$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 9c | 1,205$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.45 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fd…6ecdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,076$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 3c | 1,073$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,055$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 8c | 999.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c35…1788backed Yes | 6c | 900$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 8c | 892.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 829.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 8c | 625.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 608.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 9c | 599.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…5e3cbacked Yes | 8c | 590.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa50…8756backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 9c | 499.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 13c | 461.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 8c | 449.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 419.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 12c | 415.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 4c | 399.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa104…b30fbacked Yes | 10c | 380$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…caa7backed Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…1dc3backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d7…945ebacked Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 7c | 296.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…9bcbbacked Yes | 7c | 290$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 9c | 279$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…736abacked Yes | 11c | 255$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7f56backed Yes | 6c | 252.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c69…b8ebbacked Yes | 5c | 245.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…0f76backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…afd5backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 14c | 211.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…ae31backed Yes | 18c | 209.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…b862backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…c60cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…0380backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 11c | 185.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c11…c819backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…d32cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 10c | 162.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…e60abacked Yes | 12c | 162$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…7c2fbacked Yes | 9c | 149.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…cda9backed Yes | 11c | 147.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 12c | 123.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6101…6de6backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +168.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 9c | 111.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d16…9686backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca7…d86fbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…d953backed Yes | 13c | 92.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.