Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b99e2c671bea6e1926107edcaadcc6f5211ebd7c60dcf71e034a97bf973850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $413,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $413,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 0c | 49,301$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 18c | 20,098$3,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,604.38 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 17c | 19,812$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445.03 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 18,101$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 15,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.64 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 3c | 14,669$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.44 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 11,379$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 7,117$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 7,099$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…de29backed Yes | 21c | 6,098$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 13c | 6,000$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.5 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…a7d5backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 1c | 4,450$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 7c | 3,949$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.74 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 0c | 3,571$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 5c | 3,159$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.95 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,829$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 21c | 2,764$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.48 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 18c | 2,671$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.63 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 18c | 2,435$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.59 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 19c | 2,232$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,147$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.69 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 2,056$1,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.03 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 2,030$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 1,762$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008a…1e2ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,735$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 18c | 1,700$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 20c | 1,684$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 1,629$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.89 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 15c | 1,615$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.61 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 19c | 1,568$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.8 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d65…e42abacked Yes | 11c | 1,222$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fd…6ecdbacked Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,023$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…b294backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 5c | 978.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 17c | 921$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.57 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked Yes | 18c | 900$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 21c | 899.98$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 856$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1580…a7c9backed Yes | 18c | 800$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 19c | 799.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 15c | 749.45$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 742.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b5…1be0backed Yes | 18c | 729$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed Yes | 11c | 627.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c22…8356backed Yes | 2c | 550$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…5de7backed Yes | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 18c | 492.98$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…413fbacked Yes | 17c | 470.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…f272backed Yes | 22c | 467.05$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a7…5db9backed Yes | 19c | 439$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 432.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c2…29f9backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 16c | 389.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 5c | 379.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 20c | 339.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 18c | 332.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…047fbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 277.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 19c | 259.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 19c | 258.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…5d21backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b2…76fbbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…e449backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…5e3cbacked Yes | 21c | 219.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3502…ae31backed Yes | 18c | 210$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…dbc3backed Yes | 21c | 205.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…fbf3backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…ebf4backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe00…cb73backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e5…953abacked Yes | 21c | 192.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…4911backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd6…6682backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ce…533abacked Yes | 12c | 180.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea7…836ebacked Yes | 22c | 176$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.