Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7533173253d5573ca8132c9f595e5387476185c6690e1e12fab00784a2717ea5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,000,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $650,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,000,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 452 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 29c | 35,457$10,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,176.75 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 12c | 35,187$4,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,312.25 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 9c | 22,520$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.97 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 4c | 19,446$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.93 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 18,008$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.8 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 9c | 16,456$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.87 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 13c | 15,904$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.3 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 15,490$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.23 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 11c | 12,544$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.09 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 1c | 12,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…9a73backed Yes | 6c | 11,596$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.84 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 10,759$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.14 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 15c | 9,731$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.01 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 11c | 8,908$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.56 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 10c | 8,705$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.27 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 4c | 7,950$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 192 | 2.1%4 W · 188 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 6c | 7,372$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.93 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 17c | 6,690$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.28 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 13c | 6,664$871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.31 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 16c | 6,415$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.93 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 20c | 6,324$1,261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,261.45 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 43c | 6,000$2,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,418.91 | 95 | 3.2%3 W · 92 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 33c | 5,978$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.43 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 9c | 5,756$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.89 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 8c | 5,500$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.19 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 55c | 5,340$2,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.77 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 7c | 5,270$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.57 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 5,187$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.62 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe24f…bae5backed Yes | 13c | 5,120$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.88 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 18c | 4,943$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 11c | 4,736$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 4,403$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa0…1bf1backed Yes | 49c | 4,400$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,174.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 6c | 4,384$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.34 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 25c | 4,059$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.76 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…0fe8backed Yes | 6c | 4,036$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f1…cb5fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,976$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 35c | 3,458$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.48 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 10c | 3,391$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…e08bbacked Yes | 72c | 3,308$2,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 3,295$2,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.21 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda5e…a508backed Yes | 40c | 3,281$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 13c | 3,220$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.21 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388f…4083backed No | 72c | 3,143$2,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 18c | 2,959$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…e932backed Yes | 7c | 2,901$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.96 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 18c | 2,900$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.69 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2575backed No | 63c | 2,804$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 2c | 2,778$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 53c | 2,715$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 8c | 2,677$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 14c | 2,663$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.25 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 3c | 2,652$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…a193backed Yes | 8c | 2,650$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,640$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.32 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 19c | 2,602$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.38 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 2,543$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.23 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 2,453$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.35 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 10c | 2,376$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 28c | 1,998$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.91 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,946$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.81 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,944$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 75c | 1,941$1,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 66c | 1,894$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.35 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 1,874$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 13c | 1,874$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.87 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…4bdbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,861$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.17 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 27c | 1,856$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 18c | 1,789$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.71 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…1e59backed Yes | 12c | 1,773$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…ca90backed Yes | 3c | 1,758$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,630$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.7 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 70c | 1,622$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.61 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 14c | 1,605$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf80…d553backed Yes | 4c | 1,590$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,567$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 20c | 1,554$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.58 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed No | 49c | 1,502$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.48 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 29c | 1,500$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.52 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 18c | 1,493$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.6 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…9508backed Yes | 17c | 1,417$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.87 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 16c | 1,401$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.29 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 26c | 1,400$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.54 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 14c | 1,393$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…e11fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,380$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ae…5245backed Yes | 7c | 1,358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…416dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,332$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.29 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -48%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 21c | 1,326$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.62 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 24c | 1,304$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.52 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,300$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.46 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 7c | 1,269$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 30c | 1,269$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.84 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 11c | 1,257$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.91 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 21c | 1,254$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 9c | 1,221$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.54 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d70…2698backed Yes | 41c | 1,220$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 12c | 1,200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.