Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4949f0f84ab354aa90b9176e30cce7ca155c8cf2f993fed913d686761b3be2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $827,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $798,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $827,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 424 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 54c | 26,190$14,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,928.22 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 77c | 25,808$19,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,063.32 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 10,217$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,608.55 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked No | 1c | 9,100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 19c | 8,602$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,932.9 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 31c | 8,458$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,851.46 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 21c | 8,230$1,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,468.27 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 19c | 7,773$1,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,270 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 38c | 7,599$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.78 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,146$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,217.84 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 6,716$1,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,098.59 | 186 | 8.6%16 W · 170 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 17c | 5,692$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,710.12 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 4,619$3,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,462.17 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 12c | 4,385$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,857.73 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 8c | 4,234$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.95 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 44c | 4,124$1,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.37 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 9cpaid | +321.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 3,874$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,338.19 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 19c | 3,866$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,113.44 | 153 | 13.1%20 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked Yes | 26c | 3,725$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed No | 3c | 3,642$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 3,478$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,552.16 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 9c | 3,042$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.66 | 59 | 10.2%6 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 45c | 2,983$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,648.19 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d57…a418backed Yes | 12c | 2,641$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,332.7 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…7599backed Yes | 11c | 2,424$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.34 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 24c | 2,219$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687.97 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 25c | 2,031$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.33 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 16c | 2,022$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.34 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 14c | 2,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730 | 67 | 11.9%8 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 10c | 1,999$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.1 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…5390backed Yes | 22c | 1,982$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.88 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 28c | 1,971$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,416.39 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 27c | 1,926$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.98 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Yes | 41c | 1,880$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.27 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 19c | 1,871$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,516.27 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 79c | 1,870$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.71 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10e…e895backed Yes | 35c | 1,750$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.4 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…cd97backed Yes | 13c | 1,750$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,685$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.75 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d02…220abacked Yes | 14c | 1,655$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.7 | 84 | 14.3%12 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…27b9backed Yes | 67c | 1,646$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.54 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 47c | 1,566$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…de29backed Yes | 50c | 1,564$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 1,446$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.02 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…03efbacked Yes | 48c | 1,377$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.62 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 18c | 1,332$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.76 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x454b…8bacbacked Yes | 67c | 1,300$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.15 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…d383backed Yes | 19c | 1,267$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.32 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d3…3bdebacked Yes | 15c | 1,262$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 19c | 1,262$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.78 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81b5…1be0backed Yes | 21c | 1,252$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 30cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…d349backed Yes | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 17c | 1,250$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,036.08 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 78c | 1,223$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.93 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 1,215$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.54 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 34c | 1,194$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.91 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 72c | 1,189$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.12 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 10c | 1,169$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.32 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 54c | 1,153$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.84 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 45c | 1,110$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.27 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 45c | 1,072$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.72 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…303bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,068$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 29c | 1,066$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.95 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,045$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.15 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed No | 62c | 1,043$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…dba1backed Yes | 77c | 1,028$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.68 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2089…68c7backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd672…9d50backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…009cbacked No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f75…54fabacked Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b37cbacked No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…2575backed Yes | 76c | 999.99$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…d301backed Yes | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…7b80backed Yes | 14c | 979.99$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.19 | 120 | 15%18 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed Yes | 18c | 965.14$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.14 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 42c | 952.58$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.58 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 35c | 939.79$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.17 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…782cbacked Yes | 28c | 930.47$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.01 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked Yes | 46c | 920.19$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.33 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 35c | 917.12$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.12 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 62c | 862.54$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d7…eb41backed Yes | 58c | 852.89$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 17c | 798.41$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.81 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 21c | 795.14$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.73 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 25c | 779.41$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.8 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…1cbabacked Yes | 44c | 774.6$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.94 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3911…413fbacked Yes | 22c | 769.15$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 9c | 761.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.54 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 24c | 743.76$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.65 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 25c | 741.43$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.43 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 55c | 736.28$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.69 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed Yes | 12c | 721.63$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.36 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 29c | 715.16$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.32 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…a8f9backed No | 62c | 710$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…cbfcbacked Yes | 23c | 709.73$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.33 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e55…e157backed No | 42c | 675.03$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.02 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?this page
- Will Elon tweet 105–119 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 120–134 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet 90–104 times June 27–July 4?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 90 times June 27–July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.