TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5d5d…6be6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
166
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.13 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 65 out of 100; worst Weather at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST4540%18 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$127.8
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+156.4%+$74.68
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.53
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,022Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$358.56
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT+29%+$22.5
Will Elon tweet between 420 and 449 times August 29–September 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,023Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,022.77
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.41
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times August 22–August 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.43
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times August 15–August 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,109Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+78.7%+$1,659.41
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.8
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$46
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$851Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+39.7%+$338.12
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon tweet 145–159 times June 20–27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.75
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+44.1%+$316.04
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 18–25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$554Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2025, EDT+35.8%+$198.2
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+30.6%+$11.82
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$702.82
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.25
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$113.7
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+900%+$515.47
Will Elon tweet 800-849 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$290.7
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST-100%-$288.67
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2669.2%18 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+30.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$160
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$349Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+29%+$100.95
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$131.32
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$449Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$448.75
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+100%+$106.38
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$104.97
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$43.4
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,390Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$415.13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$356Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$144
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$80
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$210
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$227.7
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$127.47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,321Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$472.93
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,073Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$302.58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$75.74
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,117.22
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$35.16
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$58
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+25%+$129.96
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+654.1%+$213.52
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+62.6%+$398.1
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2483.3%20 W · 4 L+6.4wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+58%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.2%+$167.58
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+300%+$93.9
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$296.94
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+185.7%+$65
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+77.5%+$65.5
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,024Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.9%+$848.49
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+497.4%+$677.31
Will Ethereum dip to $3800 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$94
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$48
Will Solana dip to $180 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$300
Solana reach 225 September 1–7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$39
Will Solana reach $220 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+52.3%+$103
Will XRP reach $3.60 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$62
Will Solana reach $230 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$27.9
Will XRP dip to $2.70 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$2,676Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+50%+$1,337.6
Will XRP dip to $2.85 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+25%+$40
Will XRP reach $3.7 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$3,023Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+37.3%+$1,128.46
Will XRP reach $3.2 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$3,889Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,889.42
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+37.9%+$140.1
Will XRP reach $2.5 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,422Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+26.8%+$381.2
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Will XRP dip to $2 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+27.8%+$94.14
All 24 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$152
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$88.44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,070Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$350
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$711Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$710.9
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$289Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$101.63
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$74.48
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$928Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$928.14
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+50.7%+$111.53
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$195
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.15
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$171.57
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$38.4
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.12
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$488Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+63.9%+$312
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$64
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.92
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$37.01
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,198Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+155.6%+$8,086.05
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown last 21 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$42
Will the government shutdown last 14 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+222.6%+$94.12
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+185.7%+$65
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$76.6
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,493Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+49.7%+$742.08
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,936Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,935.71
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,959Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,958.54
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$31
Trump imposes 40% tariff on China in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2025, EDT+713.6%+$1,284.5
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,862Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST+220.3%+$4,101.19
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$52.77
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$136
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$360
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$59.2
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$520.38
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT80%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20.66
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$96
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$46
All 8 picks, newest first.
Weatherlast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-63.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$64
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+42.9%+$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5 be released by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$66
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.