Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945a07c5e040e1e27cf4eaed93353dd0783310c5bb4583614fcaede435c0301e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $568,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $573,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $568,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 560 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 77c | 25,964$20,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,925.34 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…26e3backed No | 0c | 20,800$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 3c | 12,648$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.15 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 4c | 11,802$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.89 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 36c | 11,478$4,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,132.69 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d1…a249backed No | 3c | 11,109$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.43 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 37c | 8,803$3,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,287.51 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 68c | 8,619$5,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.37 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 25c | 8,571$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,446.59 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…366bbacked No | 1c | 8,485$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…bf60backed No | 0c | 8,114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 72c | 7,583$5,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,126.55 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 36c | 6,562$2,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,188.73 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked No | 1c | 6,451$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 75c | 6,319$4,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.24 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 42c | 5,757$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.73 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeabd…3a01backed No | 35c | 5,697$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 21c | 5,082$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,001.15 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 62c | 4,752$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,827.27 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 41c | 4,698$1,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,793.85 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes | 74c | 4,478$3,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.56 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…3532backed Yes | 32c | 3,999$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed No | 21c | 3,842$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.12 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 54c | 3,735$2,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.13 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…be50backed No | 12c | 3,515$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.01 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 40c | 3,335$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.84 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 43c | 3,117$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c7…9c96backed Yes | 44c | 3,083$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,711.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 37c | 2,747$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.18 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 22c | 2,690$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100.27 | 199 | 27.6%55 W · 144 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 15c | 2,679$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.91 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 50c | 2,612$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.48 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…c4c9backed No | 78c | 2,568$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…f7c6backed No | 70c | 2,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.98 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked No | 67c | 2,474$1,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,668.52 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,429$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.26 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 17c | 2,219$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.94 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…6b35backed No | 74c | 2,167$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.88 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ce…97a7backed Yes | 42c | 1,915$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…878dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,904$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.29 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 43c | 1,879$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.04 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aaa…c18dbacked No | 6c | 1,879$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.92 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 36c | 1,863$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.8 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…f169backed No | 68c | 1,795$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.62 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 31c | 1,777$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.26 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…301dbacked Yes | 75c | 1,755$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.21 | 87 | 24.1%21 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 70c | 1,735$1,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.34 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5a…7070backed No | 71c | 1,727$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 71c | 1,686$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.96 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 43c | 1,654$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.68 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62b4…31d3backed No | 27c | 1,619$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 1,592$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,429.09 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,565$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 71c | 1,555$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.82 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…8f64backed Yes | 54c | 1,538$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…cae4backed Yes | 58c | 1,506$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…0957backed No | 24c | 1,470$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 29c | 1,453$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.71 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,420$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.23 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 11c | 1,410$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.57 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 40c | 1,389$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.33 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 77c | 1,384$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.27 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,369$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.28 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 1,340$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.18 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 39c | 1,309$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.52 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed No | 57c | 1,305$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.49 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811e…265cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,286$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 28c | 1,261$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.48 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 40c | 1,252$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.31 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked Yes | 57c | 1,213$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc0…dc99backed Yes | 65c | 1,165$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 70c | 1,140$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 74c | 1,131$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.1 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 42c | 1,129$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.89 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 38c | 1,123$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.94 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 49c | 1,113$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.5 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd19c…160fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,108$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.82 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 30c | 1,102$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.59 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 32c | 1,102$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.98 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 25c | 1,092$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.81 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,083$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.08 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed No | 53c | 1,070$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.85 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 1,062$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 17c | 1,030$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.69 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 42c | 1,025$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.48 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 39c | 1,015$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.53 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 26c | 1,009$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.16 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…e65fbacked No | 62c | 999.96$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.97 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 77c | 989.91$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Yes | 67c | 987.54$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.54 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 69c | 959.42$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.29 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…fa51backed Yes | 52c | 947.45$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 24c | 899.99$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.89 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 51c | 894$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 80c | 856.6$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.77 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 29c | 823.63$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.13 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 51c | 816.23$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.22 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…ff5bbacked No | 76c | 803.57$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.69 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…1501backed Yes | 27c | 799.81$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 8c | 765.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.58 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.