Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56ce01f177aea60f03d6eabb711019d26d052a114b03430acbc4280d732bcccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $945,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $654,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $945,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 521 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 3c | 98,940$3,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.09 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 28,350$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.5 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 21c | 27,157$5,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,792.3 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 1c | 23,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 24c | 21,116$5,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,059.76 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 2c | 20,368$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.01 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdec…4fcfbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 2c | 18,681$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.64 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes | 1c | 17,000$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 78 | 15.4%12 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 2c | 13,380$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.48 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,714$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.66 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 9c | 10,271$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.18 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 8,878$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.89 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 24c | 8,619$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,033.35 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c2…8acebacked Yes | 3c | 7,753$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 14c | 7,349$1,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.4 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked Yes | 24c | 7,170$1,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,719.22 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 30c | 6,470$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,954 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 15c | 6,387$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.98 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 26c | 6,143$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,613.68 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 9c | 6,000$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 25c | 5,886$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.08 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ed…b5bcbacked No | 41c | 5,688$2,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,343.13 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 36c | 5,010$1,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,822.39 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.1 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 7c | 4,850$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.91 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…505ebacked Yes | 13c | 4,002$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,728$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.97 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 42c | 3,500$1,473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.09 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…878dbacked Yes | 39c | 3,447$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.95 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 3,386$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 42c | 2,682$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.08 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…92d8backed Yes | 52c | 2,682$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.62 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 9c | 2,487$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.78 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…4c79backed Yes | 65c | 2,259$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.65 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…57b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,211$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 84 | 9.5%8 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +105%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,135$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 74c | 1,860$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.02 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 73c | 1,843$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.54 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…2ed7backed Yes | 7c | 1,750$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 47c | 1,726$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.35 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 1,700$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 50c | 1,698$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.35 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 7c | 1,600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 46c | 1,599$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.12 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 10c | 1,554$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.38 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf89…a739backed Yes | 13c | 1,546$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.54 | 107 | 15.9%17 W · 90 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 66c | 1,498$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.14 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…fe20backed Yes | 31c | 1,461$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 28c | 1,426$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.73 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,404$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.3 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…b810backed Yes | 39c | 1,398$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 46c | 1,343$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.89 | 70 | 11.4%8 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 49c | 1,243$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.34 | 307 | 14%43 W · 264 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 50c | 1,230$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.01 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 3c | 1,202$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 166 | 11.4%19 W · 147 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 20c | 1,200$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes | 62c | 1,152$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.51 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 12c | 1,149$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.39 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,148$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,126$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x915b…2729backed Yes | 24c | 1,124$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.41 | 122 | 18.9%23 W · 99 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…f202backed Yes | 10c | 1,094$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…a519backed Yes | 28c | 1,092$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.53 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…959dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,018$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed Yes | 72c | 1,000$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.37 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…d8b1backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 21c | 999.99$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 27c | 987.52$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.33 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…5d81backed Yes | 25c | 966.36$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.59 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…d12cbacked Yes | 22c | 959.52$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.62 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 8c | 925$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 22c | 913.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc301…76a8backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 894.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 4c | 866.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…e753backed Yes | 35c | 833.02$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…6492backed Yes | 38c | 832.91$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.55 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…c654backed Yes | 2c | 822.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +148.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…8738backed Yes | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe084…04c0backed No | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…2160backed Yes | 24c | 800$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.39 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22b…1501backed Yes | 68c | 799.98$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.99 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 51c | 794.23$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.17 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…7241backed Yes | 23c | 778.35$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 39c | 767.42$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.97 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked Yes | 2c | 750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 68c | 746.42$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.04 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 27c | 744.23$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.42 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 52c | 741.13$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.98 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8f…046abacked Yes | 14c | 740$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked No | 69c | 717.11$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5b…1ab3backed Yes | 46c | 700$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…fe32backed No | 54c | 700$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.