TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbb13…2de9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
95
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Tweets, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST3554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Tweets — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$137.21
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+106.9%+$99.32
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$198.93
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+35.1%+$53.48
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$86.82
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$26.49
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$648Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$648.23
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+259.2%+$178.81
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+26.4%+$36.03
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$928Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+47.9%+$444.94
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$572Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+35.8%+$204.67
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+79.7%+$121.15
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+75.1%+$375.42
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$361Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+117.4%+$423.9
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$552Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+132.2%+$729.46
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+53.5%+$132.22
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+194.7%+$584.12
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$273.34
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$498Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+66.7%+$332
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$201.5
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 26 to January 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$494Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$493.98
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$747Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$747.3
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$829.5
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$226
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$593.67
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$759Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+30%+$227.3
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$645Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$295.75
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+213.9%+$213.9
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$928Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$927.54
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$810.06
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+217.3%+$223.88
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$596Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$595.88
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.86
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,792Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,792.34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$351Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+91.8%+$322.61
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+130.6%+$783.85
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$449.77
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$1,099.68
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+49.3%+$352.52
Will Trump and Netanyahu only be photographed together by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$332Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST+81.1%+$269.53
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$35
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$450
All 23 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$101.86
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+127.3%+$59.36
Will Italy win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+63.9%+$12.79
Will Italy win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$44
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$52.98
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Curling - Men's at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST+74.5%+$186.11
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakiabacked Slovakia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$115
Men's Semifinals - Canada vs. Finlandbacked Finland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$349Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$348.86
Will Canada win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Women's Ice Hockey at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$45.58
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+66.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 26, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+38.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+252.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+133.7%+$294.18
Will there be 5-7 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+371.8%+$74.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado not shake hands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+28.7%+$5.74
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+61.2%+$177.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.