TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$911,489
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$842,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $911,489 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 546 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes11c46,805$5,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,567.263414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes19c20,293$3,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,508.611,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes14c19,247$2,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,594.310610.4%11 W · 95 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes16c14,075$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,765.6453817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes21c13,858$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,893.6154122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes36c13,471$4,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,665.838423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes20c13,023$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,445.9529331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes40c12,601$5,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,537.3466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes15c11,119$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,413.58977.2%7 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-68.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes8c10,872$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,054.5256817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes14c10,410$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,999.2545511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes24c10,030$2,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,670.9460127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c37…eee6backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes26c9,207$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,793.2924815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No48c7,835$3,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,731.5916969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes16c7,672$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4822359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes18c6,706$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,510.5718722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No65c6,005$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.2654675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes15c5,676$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,831.8724115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes28c5,634$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,043.2411556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes22c5,595$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,368.9218618.3%34 W · 152 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-45.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0007334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes5c4,608$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,372.2128534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes2c4,562$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,487.9385.3%2 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick1cpaid+471%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No56c4,259$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.144755.3%26 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked No56c4,097$2,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,312.9950913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x845b…e533backed Yes41c4,000$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3521100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+142.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c98…9b83backed No58c4,000$2,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,31210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes23c3,981$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,053.2331722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed No58c3,911$2,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,283.2736411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5725…7571backed No78c3,535$2,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,748.05633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-54.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c3,530$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,222.272,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No77c3,529$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,715.9656429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed No66c3,131$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,063.7712429.8%37 W · 87 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid+12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes43c3,113$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,778.9276821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes26c3,073$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,270.8410818.5%20 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed Yes35c3,067$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,001.496457.8%37 W · 27 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x564b…8348backed Yes24c2,699$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.234114.6%6 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes17c2,660$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,207.5459225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes26c2,546$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,875.57035.7%25 W · 45 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes40c2,518$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.0712117.4%21 W · 100 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes19c2,472$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,006.9511421.9%25 W · 89 L-0.4wins0.00per pick22cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No64c2,402$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.1746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes5c2,363$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,242.6434215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes43c2,346$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.087936.7%29 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes10c2,249$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.866717.9%12 W · 55 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c2,210$1,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,714.1799619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fcf…c542backed No59c2,135$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf494…7959backed No59c2,100$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes22c2,032$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,576.4762713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes22c2,029$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,573.6841230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes22c2,029$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.543023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c2,000$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9804165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes7c1,982$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.72015%3 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+81.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No65c1,955$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,280.3710857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes46c1,946$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.9823321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed Yes80c1,912$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.545145.1%23 W · 28 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe888…200dbacked No59c1,900$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x908a…f80dbacked No28c1,882$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.0918631.7%59 W · 127 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Yes16c1,869$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.322718.5%5 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7bc…18d7backed No59c1,865$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes28c1,848$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.8218218.7%34 W · 148 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8568…bc38backed Yes17c1,780$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,480.131118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d58…938ebacked No2c1,730$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes20c1,662$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.878811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No68c1,660$1,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,12234833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes13c1,645$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.984345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes24c1,600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,210.05595.1%3 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes18c1,595$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.2722718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed No60c1,509$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.665141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes19c1,500$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21815413%20 W · 134 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa553…3c98backed Yes64c1,483$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.96633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12e6…ea33backed Yes40c1,460$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.152536%9 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed No69c1,442$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.5316532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes10c1,400$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.0721215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes23c1,398$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.8388017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes10c1,363$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.821,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ffc…1787backed Yes7c1,350$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,249.851315.4%2 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick7cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes33c1,347$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.514928.2%42 W · 107 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes21c1,339$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.763408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes35c1,310$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.0529225%73 W · 219 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fae…6a71backed No48c1,286$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.15735.1%20 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes3c1,271$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.186097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes8c1,250$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.624710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes20c1,229$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.21,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed No73c1,201$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.98185.6%1 W · 17 L-4.7wins-0.26per pick32cpaid-80.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes36c1,186$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.711631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes18c1,179$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.264017.5%7 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes28c1,177$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$845.1815819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33a…1e9fbacked No45c1,153$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.49926.3%26 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes21c1,148$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.9425944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf79…84d4backed No79c1,126$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick65cpaid-56.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes2c1,116$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.5117419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked No69c1,106$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76220924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes34c1,094$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.047825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes3c1,060$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,029.26613.6%9 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa105…8687backed No75c1,047$785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.42142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-20.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes26c1,013$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.725023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes5c1,012$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$962.2611730.8%36 W · 81 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3576…09debacked No77c1,003$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.582975.9%22 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.