Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x779e83bcf4c06611c42dcc6d0ab0c0ee5f9e1b287bae31d4e60cc4d202c3391b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $911,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $842,172
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $911,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 546 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 11c | 46,805$5,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,567.2 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 19c | 20,293$3,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,508.61 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 14c | 19,247$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,594.3 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 16c | 14,075$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,765.64 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 21c | 13,858$2,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,893.61 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 36c | 13,471$4,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,665.83 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 20c | 13,023$2,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,445.95 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 40c | 12,601$5,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,537.34 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 15c | 11,119$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,413.58 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 10,872$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,054.52 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 14c | 10,410$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,999.25 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 24c | 10,030$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,670.94 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…eee6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 26c | 9,207$2,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,793.29 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 48c | 7,835$3,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,731.59 | 169 | 69.2%117 W · 52 L | +17.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 16c | 7,672$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,482 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 18c | 6,706$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,510.57 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 65c | 6,005$3,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,899.26 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 15c | 5,676$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,831.87 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 28c | 5,634$1,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,043.24 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 22c | 5,595$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,368.92 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 5c | 4,608$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,372.21 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 2c | 4,562$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.9 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +471%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 56c | 4,259$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.14 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked No | 56c | 4,097$2,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312.99 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x845b…e533backed Yes | 41c | 4,000$1,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,352 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…9b83backed No | 58c | 4,000$2,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,312 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 23c | 3,981$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,053.23 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed No | 58c | 3,911$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.27 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…7571backed No | 78c | 3,535$2,748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,748.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 3,530$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,222.27 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 77c | 3,529$2,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,715.96 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…b4c7backed No | 66c | 3,131$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.77 | 124 | 29.8%37 W · 87 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 3,113$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,778.92 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 26c | 3,073$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.84 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…2132backed Yes | 35c | 3,067$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.49 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 24c | 2,699$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.23 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,660$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.54 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed Yes | 26c | 2,546$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,875.5 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 40c | 2,518$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.07 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 19c | 2,472$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.95 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed No | 64c | 2,402$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,541.17 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 5c | 2,363$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,242.64 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…8808backed Yes | 43c | 2,346$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.08 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 10c | 2,249$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.86 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 2,210$1,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.17 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcf…c542backed No | 59c | 2,135$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf494…7959backed No | 59c | 2,100$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 22c | 2,032$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.47 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 22c | 2,029$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,573.68 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…fd2fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,029$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.54 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 7c | 1,982$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.7 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 65c | 1,955$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.37 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 46c | 1,946$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.98 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x475b…e152backed Yes | 80c | 1,912$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.54 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe888…200dbacked No | 59c | 1,900$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 28c | 1,882$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.09 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 16c | 1,869$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.32 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bc…18d7backed No | 59c | 1,865$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 28c | 1,848$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.82 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 17c | 1,780$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…938ebacked No | 2c | 1,730$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 1,662$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325.8 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 68c | 1,660$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,645$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.98 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 24c | 1,600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.05 | 59 | 5.1%3 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 18c | 1,595$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.27 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed No | 60c | 1,509$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.66 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 19c | 1,500$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa553…3c98backed Yes | 64c | 1,483$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e6…ea33backed Yes | 40c | 1,460$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…f779backed No | 69c | 1,442$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.53 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 10c | 1,400$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.07 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 23c | 1,398$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,069.83 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 10c | 1,363$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.82 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffc…1787backed Yes | 7c | 1,350$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.85 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 33c | 1,347$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.5 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 21c | 1,339$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.76 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 35c | 1,310$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.05 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…6a71backed No | 48c | 1,286$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.1 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,271$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.18 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 8c | 1,250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.6 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 20c | 1,229$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.2 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed No | 73c | 1,201$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.98 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.26per pick | 32cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 36c | 1,186$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.71 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…5165backed Yes | 18c | 1,179$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.26 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 28c | 1,177$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.18 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33a…1e9fbacked No | 45c | 1,153$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.4 | 99 | 26.3%26 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 21c | 1,148$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.94 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf79…84d4backed No | 79c | 1,126$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 65cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 2c | 1,116$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.51 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 69c | 1,106$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes | 34c | 1,094$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.04 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6f…e619backed Yes | 3c | 1,060$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.2 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa105…8687backed No | 75c | 1,047$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 26c | 1,013$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.7 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes | 5c | 1,012$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.26 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…09debacked No | 77c | 1,003$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.58 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.