Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f71cf9e952191977a5beb338e68c72c98f27ff7ceff16227d366912de0549d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 21c | 4,681$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.5 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…bc38backed Yes | 24c | 4,529$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 3,112$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.89 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 72c | 2,956$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.79 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…86dcbacked No | 76c | 1,991$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.56 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,864$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.84 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 15c | 1,706$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.12 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a37…c99cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,700$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 16c | 1,485$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.41 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,361$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0431…1662backed Yes | 29c | 1,348$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.99 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 1,268$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.77 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,220$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.14 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 24c | 1,104$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 33c | 1,062$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.4 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…a88cbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 24c | 979.72$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.47 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 800$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…6c17backed No | 80c | 739.81$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 8c | 654.15$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…5447backed Yes | 15c | 646.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 78c | 641.38$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.38 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 27c | 632.8$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 621.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb0…27f8backed Yes | 24c | 600.48$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 594.88$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.18 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 30c | 510$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 19c | 499.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…fc1dbacked Yes | 31c | 485.7$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 22cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…ec01backed Yes | 30c | 475.83$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.1 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 15c | 449.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 78c | 442.33$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.27 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 30c | 432.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.76 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 420.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…b7d3backed No | 78c | 401.05$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…46e1backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 17c | 399.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 26c | 378.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…c9f5backed Yes | 27c | 368.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 9c | 361.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x863c…655cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 108 | 16.7%18 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 13c | 283.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 72c | 277$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 19c | 271$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 116 | 24.1%28 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 25c | 249.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 67c | 238.1$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 235$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes | 19c | 221.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x423a…ec7cbacked Yes | 28c | 218.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 74c | 211.27$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 206.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 19c | 206.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebad…f22bbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5e…ef7abacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 23c | 198.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 69c | 193.02$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 315 | 65.1%205 W · 110 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 75c | 189.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a7…7aa1backed Yes | 19c | 188.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…00ccbacked Yes | 13c | 186.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 27c | 185.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…9054backed Yes | 27c | 184.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 79c | 182.29$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 181$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 177.37$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 510 | 18.2%93 W · 417 L | -89.7wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7840…1039backed Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5853…144dbacked Yes | 35c | 144.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce45…9e20backed Yes | 34c | 142.32$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 30c | 134.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 20c | 128.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 22c | 125.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 16c | 123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 33c | 121.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 15c | 119.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…64afbacked Yes | 29c | 118.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 122 | 19.7%24 W · 98 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f6…9404backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 21c | 110.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 25c | 104.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 526 | 19.8%104 W · 422 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 26c | 100.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a48…d8f8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…a2acbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 80c | 98.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…0430backed No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…7edabacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 29c | 89.44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…7a09backed Yes | 18c | 84.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…3ff9backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 83.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…99d8backed No | 77c | 81.09$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.