Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc77c87d735784cba259a1fdab87511e7e4130a05bfb822b128abe20d504ac9ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $548,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $390,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $548,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 2c | 31,444$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.91 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 25,664$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…6591backed Yes | 3c | 24,638$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.19 | 235 | 9.4%22 W · 213 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 22,928$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 20,844$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…e66fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,914$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 14,862$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 11,274$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 10,729$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.67 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,244$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 7,947$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564b…8348backed Yes | 1c | 6,521$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 1c | 5,010$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd317…025abacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db6…5001backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,701$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +125.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61dc…673dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,697$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7adf…975bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,787$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 3,615$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.64 | 97 | 7.2%7 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…39dbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,600$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 46 | 6.5%3 W · 43 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…09f6backed Yes | 1c | 3,395$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 89 | 23.6%21 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…a438backed Yes | 1c | 3,215$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 3,006$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…9aebbacked Yes | 1c | 2,917$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 14.1%34 W · 207 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,771$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 2c | 2,657$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa701…86a3backed Yes | 5c | 2,150$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Yes | 1c | 2,068$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,945$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5476…cd93backed Yes | 1c | 1,849$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +624.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa29f…b607backed Yes | 13c | 1,839$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,657$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc044…de04backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,593$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edf…0f44backed Yes | 3c | 1,588$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 65 | 9.2%6 W · 59 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 1c | 1,579$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,541$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,455$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5745…fa76backed Yes | 4c | 1,453$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8032…7c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,322$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 26.7%65 W · 178 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63ff…d8cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,216$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 1c | 1,205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 2c | 1,139$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…5c90backed Yes | 4c | 1,045$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 77 | 9.1%7 W · 70 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 3c | 917.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +196.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 1c | 900$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 881.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 3c | 875.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…3bc2backed Yes | 1c | 839.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…3badbacked Yes | 4c | 774.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 7c | 765.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…c8a1backed Yes | 2c | 582.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x690c…83b5backed Yes | 4c | 570.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 535.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Yes | 2c | 521.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 2c | 503.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…aec1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…d945backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ed…d18cbacked Yes | 3c | 391.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 3c | 376.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…532abacked Yes | 5c | 373$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…00aebacked Yes | 6c | 339.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbd…3e35backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 253$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…f77bbacked Yes | 5c | 214.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc1…3058backed Yes | 7c | 176.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…5b2ebacked Yes | 6c | 175$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.